000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2107 UTC Sun Feb 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern North Pacific Gale Warning: A vigorous mid to upper- level low continues to support a surface trough extending from 07N131W to 15N127W. Surface high pressure centered N of the area is creating a strong pressure gradient and sustaining gale force NE to E winds from 10N to 15N between 125W and 135W as indicated by latest scatterometer data. An altimeter pass over that region show seas in the 9 to 14 ft range. The low aloft is also supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms from 10N to 21N between 122W and 135W. Winds are expected to diminish below gale force this evening while active weather and strong winds in this region are likely to prevail through Mon night. Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 issued by the National Hurricane Center, and the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2 for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 01N78W to 05N86W. The ITCZ axis begins near 05N86W and continues along 03N110W to 07N136W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 20N between 122W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure centered near 36N135W ridges SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. A modest pressure gradient supported by a surface trough along the eastern shore of the Gulf of California supports gentle to moderate N winds across the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft in NW swell across this area. Under this pattern, moderate to fresh NW winds are expected across the southern Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes through early Mon with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. Little change in the overall pattern is expected through Mon before winds weaken slightly for the remainder week. Strong gap winds in the region of Tehuantepec will prevail through Mon evening and resume again Wed. Winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to increase to near-gale force Thu night and reach gale speeds by Fri morning. Current wave heights downstream of Tehuantepec are expected to subside below 8 ft tonight. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will continue over the remaining Mexican offshore waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near gale force NE to E winds will continue over and well downstream of the Papagayo region through Fri. This large area of strong winds will generate seas to 8 to 11 ft during the week. ENE swell generated by this gap wind event will combine with swell propagating S from the Tehuantepec region, and merge to create high seas across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Mon evening. Fresh to strong N winds occurring across the Gulf of Panama and extending S to around 03N will also change little through Fri. Wave heights across these waters will remain between 6 and 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above regarding a gale warning for the tropical waters between 125W and 135W through this evening. Winds and seas west of 120W will begin to subside Mon night through Tue as the high to the north weakens and shifts NE. Fresh NE trade winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are expected across the trade wind belt by Wed. As mentioned above, very active convection is expected to continue across this area through late Mon supported by a low aloft. $$ Ramos