000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161545 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1507 UTC Sun Feb 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1450 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern North Pacific Gale Warning: A vigorous mid-level low pressure center centered near 19N138W supports a surface trough extending from 08N138W to 16N134W. Surface high pressure centered over the NE Pacific directly N of this area is creating a strong pressure gradient and gale force NE to E winds to the N and NE of the surface trough. Recent ASCAT data depicted NE to E winds of 25 to 40 kt from 12N to 17N between 125W and 135W, where seas are estimated to be 10 to 15 ft. Additionally, strong to gale force NE to E winds cover a large area from 08N to 20N between the mid-level low and 118W, and are creating a broad area of moderate to strong showers and isolated thunderstorms from 08N to 21N between 117W and 137W. The mid-level low will weaken slowly and drift SW to near 17N140W by midday Mon but still remain strong enough to maintain very active weather and strong winds across this region. Winds are expected to diminish below gale force late this afternoon as the surface trough moves slowly west and weakens. Seas are peaking between 12 and 15 ft and will slowly diminish during the next few days. Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 issued by the National Hurricane Center, and the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2 for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from low pres 1007 mb near 10N75W to 02N80W to 05N86W. The ITCZ continues from 05N86W to 05N95W to 03N104W TO 05N118W, then resumes from 06N121W to 08N135W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 NM of the Colombian coast between 00N and 04.5N. A broad area of active convection is already described above that is associated with a mid-level low, surface trough and gale force surface winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure centered near 35N135W ridges SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. A modest pressure gradient supported by a surface trough along the eastern shore of the Gulf of California resides over the waters N of 15N and E of 117W, resulting in moderate to fresh N winds across the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in NW swell across this area. Little change in the overall pattern is expected through Mon before winds weaken slightly during the middle of the week as the high pressure weakens. Under this pattern, moderate to fresh NW winds are expected across the southern Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes through early Mon with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. Moderate NW to W winds prevail across the waters from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel tonight. Near gale force gap winds currently over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish through Mon afternoon. Wave heights downstream of the area are expected to subside below 8 ft by Tue night. The next gale force gap wind event could affect the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will continue over the remaining Mexican offshore waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near gale force NE to E winds will continue over and well downstream of the Papagayo region through Fri. This large area of fresh to strong winds will generate seas to 8 to 11 ft during the next several days. ENE swell generated by this gap wind event will combine with swell propagating S from the Tehuantepec region, and merge to create high and confused seas across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Mon night, where peak seas reaching 10 to 11 ft. The plume of 8 ft seas will reach as far downstream as 10N117W Mon and Tue. Fresh to strong N winds occurring across the Gulf of Panama and extending S to around 04N will also change little through Fri. Wave heights across these waters will remain between 6 and 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above regarding a gale warning for the tropical waters W of 130W tonight through Sun morning. Winds and seas west of 120W will begin to subside Mon night through Tue as the high to the north weakens and shifts NE. Fresh NE trade winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are expected across the trade wind belt by Wed. As mentioned above, very active convection is expected to continue across this area through late Mon as the middle-level low slowly digs SW over the region today, then begins to drift NE Mon. $$ CAM