000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161014 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Feb 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern North Pacific Gale Warning: A vigorous mid-level low pressure center near 19N138W supports a surface trough that extends from 09N137W to 14N135W. Surface high pressure is centered over the NE Pacific directly north of this area and is inducing a strong pressure gradient and gale force NE to E winds to the north and northeast of the surface trough. Recent ASCAT data depicted NE to E winds of 25 to 40 kt from 12N to 17N between 125W and 135W, where seas are estimated to be 10-14 ft. Additionally, strong to gale force NE to E winds cover a large area from 08N to 20N between the mid-level low and 118W, and are creating a broad area of moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms from 08.5N TO 19.5N between 113W and 136W. The mid-level low will drift SW to along 140W through early Mon to maintain very active weather and strong winds across this region. Winds are expected to diminish below gale force late this afternoon as the surface trough moves slowly west and weakens. Seas are expected to peak at 12-15 ft across this zone this morning through early afternoon. Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 issued by the National Hurricane Center, and the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2 for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 10N74W TO 02N79W TO 04N84W. The ITCZ begins near 04N84W TO 05N90W TO 03N104W TO 08.5N136W TO beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 NM of the Colombian coast between 00N and 04.5N. A broad area of active convection is described above associated with a mid-level low and gale force surface winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure centered NW of the area ridges SE to near Cabo San Lucas. A modest pressure gradient prevails across the waters N of 15N and E of 117W, resulting in moderate to fresh northerly winds across the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas are generally 4-6 ft in NW swell across this area. Little change in the overall pattern is expected through Mon before winds weaken slightly during the middle of the week as the high pressure weakens. Under this pattern, moderate to fresh NW winds are expected across the southern Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes through early Mon with seas in the 3-5 ft range. Moderate NW to W winds prevail across the waters from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel tonight. Gale force gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the past 24 hours have diminished to just below gale force since this evening, with peak seas expected near 11 ft. High pressure N of the Gulf of Mexico will continue to shift E, resulting in diminishing winds across the Tehuantepec region Sun afternoon through Mon afternoon. Wave heights downstream of the area are expected to subside below 8 ft by Tue night. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will continue over the remaining Mexican offshore waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near gale force NE to E winds will continue over and well downstream of the Papagayo region through Fri. This large area of fresh to strong winds will generate seas to 8-10 ft for the next several days. ENE swell generated by this gap wind event will combine with swell propagating southward from the Tehuantepec region, and merge to create high and confused seas across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Mon night, where peak seas will reach 10-11 ft. Fresh to strong N winds occurring across the Gulf of Panama and extending S to around 04N will also change little through Fri. Wave heights across these waters will remain between 6 and 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above regarding a gale warning for the tropical waters W of 130W tonight through Sun morning. Winds and seas west of 120W will begin to subside Mon night through Tue as the high to the north weakens and shifts NE. Fresh NE tradewinds and seas of 7-9 ft are expected across the tradewind belt by Wed. As mentioned above, very active convection is expected to continue across this area through late Sun as the middle-level low slowly digs SW over the region. $$ Stripling