000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160347 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 256 UTC Sun Feb 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern North Pacific Gale Warning: A mid-level low centered near 18N136W supports a surface trough that extends from 09N137W to 16N132W. The elongated area of low pressure will deepen due to persistent convection, which will lead to strengthening of the trade winds to gale force tonight. Gales are expected from 12N to 17N W of 130W through Sun morning with seas building to 14 ft. Showers and tstms are forecast to continue in this region through Tue evening as the surface trough loses upper-level support, drifts west and gradually weakens. Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 issued by the National Hurricane Center, and the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2 for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 03N77W to 01N80W to 02N83W. The ITCZ axis begins near 02N83W and continues along 05N93W to 04N110W to 08N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are from 07N to 20N between 112W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure centered NW of the area ridges SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. A generally weak pressure gradient prevails across the waters N of 15N E of 115W. This setup will maintain gentle to moderate N winds over the nearshore waters of Baja with seas to 6 ft continuing through Fri. Moderate to fresh NW winds are expected across the southern Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes tonight through early Mon with seas in the 2-4 ft range. Near-gale force winds are now in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with wave heights to 11 ft. High pressure N of the area supporting these winds will continue to shift E, which will result on winds diminishing to strong by Sun afternoon and to fresh by Mon afternoon. Wave heights downstream of the area are expected to subside below 8 ft by Tue night. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will continue over the remaining Mexican offshore waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near gale force NE to E winds will continue over the Papagayo region through Fri. This will generate a large area of fresh to strong winds and build seas to 8-11 ft. ENE swell generated by this gap wind event will combine with swell propagating S from the Tehuantepec region, and merge to create high seas across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Mon night. Fresh to strong N winds occurring across the Gulf of Panama and extending S to around 04N will also change little through Fri. Wave heights across these waters will remain between 6 and 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above regarding a gale warning for the tropical waters W of 130W tonight through Sun morning. A strong ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high N of the area is supporting fresh to near-gale force winds from 10N to 22N W of 120W. Seas across this area are already in the 8-12 ft range, generally in mixed NE wind waves and NW to N swell. Very active convection is expected to continue across this area through late Sun as the middle-level low slowly digs SSW over the region and supports the surface trough. $$ Ramos