000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152207 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2130 UTC Sat Feb 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: N to NE gales of 30 to 35 kt over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will prevail through this evening with wave heights up to 13 ft. High pressure N of the area supporting these winds will continue to shift E, which will result on winds diminishing to strong by Sun afternoon and to fresh by Mon afternoon. Wave heights downstream of the area are expected to subside below 8 ft by Tue night. Eastern North Pacific Gale Warning: A mid to upper-level low centered near 22N131W is slowly shifting SSW. The low supports a surface trough that extends from 07N137W to 15N131W. The trough is expected to further develop, thus resulting in a pressure gradient increase and the strengthening of the trade winds to gale force tonight. Gales are expected from 12N to 17N W of 129W through Sun morning with seas building to 14 ft. The upper low will also create very unstable atmospheric conditions and trigger widespread squalls and thunderstorms across this region. Conditions are expected to improve early next week as the surface trough loses upper-level support, drifts west and gradually weakens. Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 issued by the National Hurricane Center, and the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2 for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 04N77W to 03N81W to 03N88W. The ITCZ axis begins near 03N88W and continues to 05N110W, then resumes near 06N118W and continues to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 17N between 110W and 126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on the latest ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale wind event. Strong high pressure centered NW of the area ridges SE to near Las Tres Marias Islands. A generally weak pressure gradient prevails across the waters N of 15N E of 115W. This setup will maintain gentle to moderate N winds over the nearshore waters of Baja and across the Gulf of California. The strongest winds are expected from the entrance of the Gulf to Cabo Corrientes today through early Sun. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will continue over the remaining Mexican offshore waters, except for the Tehuantepec region as described above. Seas over these waters are in the 4-6 ft range, except lower wave heights of 2-4 ft inside the Gulf of California. The ridge will build SE across the region Sun and Mon, supporting fresh N winds over the central and southern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate N winds will then dominate the region of Baja and the Gulf through the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near gale force NE to E winds will continue over the Papagayo region through Wed night. This will generate a large area of fresh to strong winds and build seas to 8-11 ft. ENE swell generated by this gap wind event will combine with swell propagating S from the Tehuantepec region, and merge to create high seas across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Mon night. Fresh to strong N winds occurring across the Gulf of Panama and extending S to around 04N will also change little through Wed night. Wave heights across these waters will remain between 6 and 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above regarding a gale warning for the tropical waters W of 129W tonight through Sun morning. A strong ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high N of the area is supporting fresh to strong winds from 13N to 19N between 123W and 135W, and moderate to fresh trades N of 10N and W of 115W. Seas across this area are already in the 8-10 ft range, generally in mixed NE wind waves and NW to N swell. Very active convection is expected to continue across this area through late Sun as the upper level low slowly digs SSW over the region and supports the surface trough. $$ Ramos