177 AXPZ20 KNHC 151016 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Feb 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong north to northeast gales of 30 to 45 kt prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downstream to near 14N95.5W this tonight, and are expected to be reaching the peak of this current gap wind event. Resultant wave heights have built to 10-17 ft tonight. The ridge across northeast Mexico that supports these winds will start to weaken late tonight through Sat, and result in winds diminishing to minimal gale force by Sat afternoon, and falling just below gale force late Sat afternoon through evening. Wave heights downstream of the area are expected to subside below 12 ft Sat evening. Eastern North Pacific Gale Warning: A middle to upper-level low center currently across the far NW waters is shifting SSW tonight and will cut off north of 20N and west of 125W during the next 24 hours, which will induce the development of a trough farther south into the tropics roughly in the vicinity of 130W. The pressure gradient between this trough and high pressure over the northern waters will result in strengthening trades between 10N and 20N and high seas between 125W and 135W this weekend. Winds will peak around 35 kt between 125W and 135W Sun morning with wave heights building to 10-15 ft. The upper low will also create very unstable atmospheric conditions and induce widespread squalls and thunderstorms across this region. Conditions are expected to improve early next week as the surface trough loses upper-level support, drifts west and gradually weakens. Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 issued by the National Hurricane Center, and the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2 for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 10N75W to 02N79W to 04.5N87W. The ITCZ axis begins near 04.5N88W to 02N94W to 05.5N110W to 06N126W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 06.5N TO 15N between 108W AND 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale wind event. Strong high pressure centered well NW of the area extends a ridge SE to near Las Tres Marias. A generally weak pressure gradient prevails across the waters north of 24N and will continue to support gentle to moderate northerly winds over the nearshore waters of Baja, across the Gulf of California, and with strongest winds from the entrance of the Gulf to Cabo Corrientes tonight through early Sun. Elsewhere, a light to gentle winds will remain over the remaining Mexican offshore waters, except for the Tehuantepec region as described above. Seas over these waters are in the 4-6 ft range, except lower wave heights of 2-4 ft inside the Gulf of California. Little change in these conditions is expected through Sun morning. The ridge will build SE across the region, increasing the pressure gradient and the winds over the central and southern Gulf of California to fresh speeds the remainder weekend through Mon. Gentle to moderate N winds will then dominate the region of Baja and the Gulf through the middle to the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near gale force northeast winds will continue over the Papagayo region through Wed, and extends WSW downstream to almost due south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec along 95W. This will generate a large area of fresh to strong winds and build seas to 8-11 ft. This ENE swell generated by this gap wind event will combine with swell propagating southward from the Tehuantepec region, and merge to create high and confused seas across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Mon night. Fresh to strong N winds occurring across the Gulf of Panama and extending southward to around 04N will also change little through Wed. Wave heights across these waters will be remain 6-7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong ridge anchored by a 1034 mb high N of the area near 37N139W is supporting moderate to fresh trades N of 10N and W of 120W, except for strong trades from 12N-18N between 125W and 135W, where the aforementioned surface trough is beginning to show signs of development. Seas across this area are already in the 8-10 ft range, in mixed NE wind waves and NW to N swell. Very active convection is expected to continue across this area through late Sun as the upper level low digs southward into the region and induces a surface trough. Otherwise, see the Special Features section above regarding a developing gale over the tropical waters W of 125W on Sun. $$ Stripling