000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150336 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 233 UTC Sat Feb 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: North to northeast winds of 30 to 40 kt are occurring across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These gap winds are supported by strong high pressure ridging building southward along the Sierra Madre Mountains. A slight tightening of the gradient tonight will allow for these winds to increase to a strong gale event with peak force of 45 kt. Resultant wave heights will build to a peak of about 18 ft tonight. The ridge will start to weaken late tonight, resulting in minimal gale force winds Sat morning and near gale force Sat afternoon. Wave heights are expected to subside below 12 ft Sat evening. Eastern North Pacific Gale Warning: A mid-level low will cut off north of 20N west of 125W during the next 30 hours, which will induce the development of a trough farther south into the tropics roughly in the vicinity of 130W. The pressure gradient between this trough and high pressure over the northern waters will result in strengthening trades and building wave heights between 120W and 130W this weekend. Winds will peak around 35 kt between 125W and 135W Sun with wave heights building to 10-15 ft. Conditions are expected to improve early next week as the trough loses upper-level support and gradually weakens. Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 issued by the National Hurricane Center, and the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2 for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 02N78W to 03N90W. The ITCZ axis begins near 03N91W and continues along 04N110W to 08N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 15N between 106W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for detailed information on an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale wind event. Strong high pressure centered N of the area extends a ridge SE to Baja California Sur offshore waters. A generally weak pressure gradient over the region will support gentle to moderate northerly winds over the nearshore waters of Baja, across the Gulf of California to the entrance of the Gulf to Cabo Corrientes tonight through early Sun. Elsewhere, a light to gentle breeze will remain over the remaining Mexican offshore waters, except for the Tehuantepec region as described above. Wave heights over these waters are in the 4-6 ft range, except for lower wave heights of 2-4 ft inside the Gulf of California. Little change in these conditions is expected through Sun morning. The ridge will build SE across the region, increasing the pressure gradient and the winds over the central and southern Gulf of California to fresh speeds the remainder weekend through Mon. Gentle to moderate N winds will then dominate the region of Baja and the gulf through the middle to the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near gale force northeast winds will continue over the Papagayo region through Wed, with a large area of fresh to strong winds expected well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo each day. Swell generated by this gap wind event, combined with swell from the Tehuantepec region, will merge and affect the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Mon night. Combined wave heights in the range of 8-11 ft are expected through early next week. Fresh to strong N winds will change little over and downstream of the Gulf of Panama through Wed. Wave heights with these winds will be below 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong ridge anchored by a 1034 mb high N of the area is supporting moderate to fresh trades N of 10N and W of 120W, except for fresh to strong trades from 12N-15N between 120W and 125W. Wave heights remain in the range of 7-10 ft in this region attributed to NE wind waves mixed with with NW to N swell. Otherwise, see the Special Features section above regarding a developing gale over the tropical waters W of 125W on Sun. $$ Ramos