000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142159 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2135 UTC Fri Feb 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: North to northeast winds of 30 to 35 kt are occurring across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These gap winds are supported by strong high pressure ridging that is building southward along the Sierra Madre Mountains. A slight tightening of the gradient into tonight will allow for these winds to increase further to a strong gale event with peak force of 45 kt. Resultant wave heights will build to a peak of about 17 ft tonight. The gradient will gradually slacken beginning late tonight, thus resulting in minimal gale force winds early on Sat and to near gale force late Sat into Sun. Wave heights are expected to subside to around 12 ft Sat afternoon into Sun. Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 issued by the National Hurricane Center, and the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2 for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 05N77W to 03N80W to 04N88W. The ITCZ axis begins near 03N93W and continues along 07N120W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 14N between 111W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for detailed information on an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale wind event. Strong high pressure centered well to the north of the area extends a ridge SE to well offshore the Baja California Peninsula. The associated gradient is allowing for gentle to moderate NW winds over the nearshore waters of Baja tonight, across the Gulf of California to the entrance of the Gulf to Cabo Corrientes. Elsewhere, a light to gentle breeze will remain over the remaining Mexican offshore waters, except for the Tehuantepec region as described above. Wave heights over these waters are in the 4-6 ft range, except for lower wave heights of 2-4 ft inside the Gulf of California. Little change in these conditions is expected through Sat. The aforementioned high pressure ridge will build SE across the region over the weekend, with the related gradient increasing the winds over the central and southern Gulf of California to mainly moderate speeds. NW swell is forecast to begin to propagate through the northern Baja California offshore waters Sat afternoon through Sun. Wave heights are forecast to reach 8 ft offshore Baja California Norte on Sun. A new set of NW swell is forecast to propagate through the offshore waters of northern Baja California early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near gale force northeast winds will continue over the Papagayo region through Tue night, with a large area of fresh to strong winds expected well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo each day. Swell generated by this gap wind event, combined with swell from the Tehuantepec region, will merge and affect the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through early next week. Highest combined wave heights in the range of 8-11 ft are expected this weekend. Fresh to strong N winds will change little over and downstream of the Gulf of Panama through early next week. Wave heights with these winds will be mostly below 8 ft, but could build to 8 ft at times. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high N of the area is supporting moderate to fresh trades N of the ITCZ and W of 120W, except for fresh to strong trades from 12N-15N between 121W and 129W. Wave heights remain in the range of 7-10 ft in this region attributed to NE wind waves mixed with with NW to N swell. A mid-level low will cut off north of 20N west of 125W during the next 36 hours, which will induce the development of a trough farther south into the tropics roughly in the vicinity of 130W. The pressure gradient between this trough and high pressure over the northern waters will result in strengthening trades and building wave heights between 120W and 130W this weekend. Winds will peak around 30 kt between 125W and 135W Sun with wave heights building to 10-15 ft. Conditions are expected to improve early next week as the trough loses upper-level support and gradually weakens. $$ Ramos