000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141006 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Feb 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly gap winds have commenced tonight across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, behind a cold front across the SW Gulf of Mexico. These northerly gales are expected to strengthen to near 40 kt by around sunrise Fri and extend father offshore to near 14N95.5W, and then peak at around 45 kt Fri night. Gales are then expected to abate modesty but persist through Sat night, before diminishing below gale force Sun morning. Seas are expected to build to 8-13 ft by Fri morning, and peak around 18 ft Fri night into early Sat. Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 issued by the National Hurricane Center, and the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2 for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N74.5W TO 03N79W TO 04.5N89W. The ITCZ extends from 04N91W TO 07N115W TO 08N127W TO beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N TO 13.5N between 104W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on expected gale conditions in the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning later tonight. A high pressure ridge extends from the NE Pacific southeastward to well offshore of the Baja Peninsula near 27N123W. This pattern is producing moderate NW winds across the nearshore waters of Baja tonight, and also moderate NNW along the full length of the Gulf of California southward across the entrance of the Gulf to Cabo Corrientes. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes prevail across the remaining Mexican offshore waters, except for the Tehuantepec region as described above. Modest sea heights prevail across these waters tonight at 4-6 ft, except 2-4 ft inside the Gulf of California. Little change in these conditions is expected on Friday. High pressure building southeastward across the region over the weekend will support fresh winds from the central Gulf of California southward to the entrance to the Gulf Sat night through Sun night. NW swell will move across the Baja California offshore waters Sat through Sun, with seas expected to build to 8 ft off Baja California Norte. New NW swell will propagate across the region early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near gale force winds will prevail over the Papagayo region through Tue night, with a large area of fresh to strong winds expected well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo each day. Swell generated by this gap wind event, combined with swell from the Tehuantepec region, will merge and affect the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through early next week. Highest combined seas of 8-12 ft are expected this weekend. Fresh to strong N winds will prevail over and downstream of the Gulf of Panama tonight through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure over the waters north of 20N and west of 123W is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds between the ITCZ and 20N west of 110W. Wave heights remain 7-10 ft in this region, in mixed NE wind waves and residual NW to N swell. Another area of fresh to strong NE winds is expected overnight north of 20N west of 135W as high pressure begins to build north of the region. West of 120W, little change in marine conditions is expected through Fri. By this weekend, a mid-level low will cut off north of 20N west of 125W, which will induce the development of a trough farther south into the tropics roughly in the vicinity of 130W. The pressure gradient between this trough and high pressure over the northern waters will result in strengthening trade winds and building seas between 120W and 130W this weekend. Winds will peak around 30 kt between 125W and 135W Sun with seas building to 10-15 ft. Conditions are expected to improve early next week as the trough loses upper-level support and gradually weakens. $$ Stripling