000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132142 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2120 UTC Thu Feb 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A Gulf of Mexico cold front has moved into the Bay of Campeche this afternoon. Strong winds behind the cold front will funnel through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec tonight, with gale force winds expected over the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late tonight. Gales are likely to persist through Sat night, with the strongest winds pulsing during the overnight and early morning hours in conjunction with nocturnal drainage flow. Seas are expected to build to 8-13 ft by Fri morning, and peak around 18 ft Fri night into early Sat. Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 issued by the National Hurricane Center, and the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2 for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 05N77W to 04N80W to 05N88W. The ITCZ extends from 05N88W to 08N110W to 07N120W to 04N140W. No significant convection is noted at this time. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on expected gale conditions in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A high pressure ridge extends from high pressure well northwest of the area southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. A weak low pressure trough is analyzed over the Gulf of California. Earlier scatterometer data showed moderate northerly winds off Cabo Corrientes and over portions of the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes prevail across the remaining Mexican offshore waters. Recent altimeter data off Baja California Sur confirms wave heights have subsided below 8 ft. A low pressure trough may cross the northern waters this weekend. High pressure building NW of the region will support fresh winds from the central Gulf of California southward to the entrance to the Gulf Sat night through Sun night. NW swell will move across the Baja California offshore waters Sat through Sun, with seas expected to build to 8 ft off Baja California Norte. A larger set of NW swell will propagate across the region early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Earlier scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh northerly winds over and downstream of the Gulf of Panama. Data was unavailable over the Papagayo region. Strong to near gale force winds will prevail over the Papagayo region through Tue night, with a large area of fresh to strong winds expected well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo each day. Swell generated by this gap wind event, combined with swell from the Tehuantepec region, will affect offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through early next week. Highest combined seas of 8-12 ft are expected this weekend. Fresh to strong N winds will prevail over and downstream of the Gulf of Panama tonight through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure over the waters north of 20N is supporting fresh trade winds between the ITCZ and 20N west of 115W. Several altimeter passes indicate wave heights are 8-11 ft in this region, in mixed wind waves and residual NW to N swell. Another area of fresh NE winds is noted north of 26N west of 130W, with seas 8-9 ft in this region. Little change in marine conditions is expected through Fri. By this weekend, a mid-level low will cut off north of 20N west of 125W, which will induce the development of a trough farther south into the tropics roughly 125W and 130W. The pressure gradient between this trough and high pressure over the northern waters will result in strengthening trade winds and building seas between 120W and 130W this weekend. $$ Reinhart