000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130920 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Feb 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong winds behind a cold front in the western Gulf of Mexico will funnel through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec tonight, with gale force winds expected over the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late tonight. Gales are likely to persist through Sat night, with the strongest winds pulsing during the overnight and early morning hours in conjunction with nocturnal drainage flow. Seas are expected to build to 8-12 ft by Fri morning, and peak around 16 ft Fri night into early Sat. Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 issued by the National Hurricane Center, and the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2 for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 03N81W. The ITCZ extends from 03N81W to 07N99W, then resumes from 05N106W to 06N121W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm either side of a surface trough that extends from 04N105W to 10N100W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on expected gale conditions in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Weak high pressure persists across the waters north of 20N this morning. Scatterometer data shows fresh N-NW winds are occurring along the coast of Jalisco near Cabo Corrientes, and across the southern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters. NW swell continues to decay across the Baja California offshore waters, with wave heights expected to be generally 6-7 ft today. A weakening cold front or trough may cross the northern waters Fri night into Sat. High pressure building behind the front will support fresh winds in the central Gulf of California Sat night through Sun night. NW swell will move across the Baja California offshore waters Sat through Sun, with seas expected to build to 8 ft off Baja California Norte, then decay by early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near gale force winds will prevail over the Papagayo region through Mon night, with a large area of fresh to strong winds expected well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo each day. Swell generated by this gap wind event, combined with swell from the Tehuantepec region, will affect offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through early next week. Highest combined seas of 8-11 ft are expected this weekend. Fresh N winds will prevail over and downstream of the Gulf of Panama through Sat, becoming strong Sat night, and continuing to pulse at night through Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure over the waters north of 20N is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 20N west of 120W. Altimeter data indicates wave heights of 8-11 ft in this region, in mixed wind waves and residual NW swell. Elsewhere, showers persist near a trough extending from 04N105W to 10N100W. Little change is expected in marine conditions during the next two days. By this weekend, a mid-level low will cut off west of 125W, which will induce the development of a trough near 125W. The gradient between this expected trough and high pressure over northern waters will result in strengthening trade winds and building seas, roughly between 120W and 130W later this weekend. $$ Mundell