684 AXPZ20 KNHC 130301 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0300 UTC Thu Feb 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will continue moving across the western Gulf of Mexico overnight into Thu. Strong winds behind the front will funnel across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, with gale force winds expected over the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late Thu night. Gales are likely to persist through Sat night, with the strongest winds pulsing during the overnight and early morning hours in conjunction with nocturnal drainage flow. Seas are expected to build to 8-12 ft by Fri morning, and peak around 16 ft late Fri night into early Sat. Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 issued by the National Hurricane Center, and the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2 for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 04N80W to 03N84W. The ITCZ extends from 03N84W to 07N97W, then resumes from 06N105W to 06N125W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm either side of a surface trough that extends from 09N101W to 03N104W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on expected gale conditions in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Weak high pressure persists across the waters north of 20N this evening. Fresh to locally strong winds are likely occurring along the coast of Sinaloa and offshore of Cabo Corrientes, with moderate northerly winds elsewhere over the Baja California Sur waters and near the entrance to the Gulf of California. Otherwise, gentle to moderate breezes prevail across the remaining Mexican offshore waters. NW swell continues to decay across the Baja California offshore waters, with wave heights expected to subside below 8 ft by Thu morning. A weakening cold front or trough may cross the northern waters Fri night into Sat. High pressure building in the wake of the front will support fresh winds over the central and southern Gulf of California Sat night through Sun night. NW swell will move across the Baja California offshore waters late Sat through Sun, with seas expected to build to 8 ft off Baja California Norte. This swell will likely decay by early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near gale force winds will prevail over the Papagayo region through Mon night, with a large area of fresh to strong winds expected well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo each day. Swell generated by the Papagayo gap wind event, combined with swell from the Tehuantepec region, will impact the offshore waters off Guatemala and El Salvador through early next week. The highest seas are expected this weekend as combined seas build to 8-11 ft in these waters. Fresh N winds will prevail over and downstream of the Gulf of Panama through Sat, then pulse to strong speeds through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure building over the waters north of 20N is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 20N west of 125W. Earlier altimeter data showed wave heights greater than 8 ft in this region, likely in mixed NE to E wind waves and residual NW swell. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms persist near a surface trough extending from 09N101W to 03N104W. This surface pattern will persist through late week with little change in marine conditions. By this weekend, a mid to upper- level low will cut off west of 125W, which will likely induce surface trough development in the tropics near 125W. A tightening pressure gradient between this trough and high pressure over the northern waters will result in strengthening trade winds and building seas roughly between 120W and 130W later this weekend. $$ Reinhart