761 AXPZ20 KNHC 121538 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1538 UTC Wed Feb 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front over the northwest Gulf of Mexico will push into the southwest Gulf of Mexico tonight. Strong winds behind the front will funnel across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, with winds expected increase to gale force over the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Thu night. Gales are likely to persist through Sun night with strongest pulses during the overnight and early morning hours in conjunction with nocturnal drainage flow. Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 issued by the National Hurricane Center, and the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2 for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 03N80W to 03N85W. The ITCZ continues from 03N85W to 06N100W to 08N140W to 07N114W to 06N128W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 07N between 95W and 105W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see discussion above in Special Features for information on gale conditions in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Deep layer moisture is tapering off from the Revillagigedo Islands to Cabo Corrientes ahead of mid/upper level trough moving across north central Mexico. At the surface, weak high pressure extends across the waters north of 20N. An earlier ship observation indicated fresh to strong winds off Cabo Corrientes, where northerly winds are funneling between the ridge and higher terrain along the coast. Elsewhere, this pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes across most of the Mexican offshore waters. A recent altimeter satellite pass indicated mainly 4 to 6 ft wave heights in open waters, except reaching as high as 8 ft from the coast of Baja California through Clarion Island primarily due to lingering northerly swell. A weak cold front may enter the waters off Baja California Norte Fri as another mid to upper trough moves into the region. The front will weaken further and stall across the central and southern Gulf of California and Baja California Sur into Sat, before dissipating Sun. High pressure building in the wake of the front will allow moderate to fresh winds north of 20N. Looking ahead, NW swell to 8 ft will move into the waters off northern Baja California Norte and near Guadalupe Island Sun into Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near gale force winds will prevail over the Papagayo region through Sun night. A large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds is forecast to extend downwind of the source region to near 93W or 94W by Sat. Swell generated by the Papagayo gap wind event, and later from the T are expected to impact the offshore waters off Guatemala and El Salvador. Fresh N winds pulsing over and downwind of the Gulf of Panama during the overnight and early morning hours will become strong Sat night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is building over the waters north of 20N is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds between the ITCZ and 20N west of 125W as noted in a pair of earlier scatterometer satellite passes. Concurrent altimeter passes showed wave heights around 6 to 8 ft. Farther east, showers and thunderstorms persist from 05N to 07N between 95W and 105W in an area of upper divergence east of an upper trough along 110W. The pattern will persist through mid week. By late week, a mid to upper level low will cutoff near 25N125W Thu into Fri, with a building ridge farther west. Global models indicate an associated surface trough forming in the deep tropics between 120W and 130W Fri through Sun. A tightening gradient between this feature and the high pressure allowing trade wind to increase west of 125W. $$ Christensen