606 AXPZ20 KNHC 111532 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1532 UTC Tue Feb 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 06N90W. A segment of the ITCZ continues from 05N90W to 05N110W, and another segment continues from 04N115W to 07N130W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted form 09N to 12N between 110W and 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front is weakening as it moves through the southern portions of the Gulf of California and Baja California Sur. This is related to mid to upper level disturbance moving through the Sonoran Desert. An associated 1013 mb mesoscale surface low is noted over the northern Gulf of California, west of the main synoptic scale low centered near El Paso. Deep layer moisture is streaming across Baja California Sur into north central Mexico, possibly bringing a few showers into the region. A recent ship observation indicated strong NW winds off Punta Eugenia, between the low pressure areas and the subtropical ridge to the northwest of the area. The recent ship observation and a recent altimeter satellite pass indicate seas of 9 to 13 ft off the coast of Baja California, likely in long period NW swell. A relatively light wind regime prevails farther south off the coast of central and southern Mexico, and altimeter passes from that area show seas of 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, a cold front entering the Gulf of Mexico will push into the southwest Gulf late Wed and Wed night. Strong winds behind the front will funnel across the isthmus of Tehuantepec, possibly bringing winds to gale force into the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thu night, and persist through the remainder of the week with the strongest pulses during overnight and early morning hours. Farther north, the pressure gradient will weaken a bit starting later today as the low pressures lift out and the ridge gentle builds into the region. This will allow the winds to diminish through tonight. The swell will decay gradually as it continues to propagate through the region through mid week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds will prevail across the Papagayo region through Fri, with strong to near gale force winds Fri night through Sat night. Seas in this region should peak around 12 ft early on Sat. One again, a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds is forecast to extend SW and downwind of the Papagayo region to beyond 93W or 94W on Sat. Swell generated by the Tehuantepec and Papagayo gap wind events are expected to impact the offshore waters off Guatemala and El Salvador. Pulsing northerly winds of 20 kt are forecast to persist across the Gulf of Panama and downwind during the overnight and early morning hours over the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Earlier scatterometer passes indicated fresh to strong E to SE winds across the northwest waters, especially N of 20N and W of 135W. These winds are the result of a tight pressure gradient between a ridge across the northern forecast waters and a gale center located just north of the Hawaiian Islands. The low is forecast to move south and weaken over the next couple of days. This will allow a change in the pattern. The pressure gradient south of of strong 1036 mb high pressure centered north of the forecast region near 42N136W, will support fresh to locally strong trades, mainly from 10N to 20N and W of 120W with seas of 8 to 10 ft. $$ Christensen