000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110928 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 537 UTC Tue Feb 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 05N90W. The ITCZ continues from 05N90W to 04N110W to 06N125W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N to 09N between 110W and 113W where a surface trough is analyzed along 111W at 0600 UTC. Similar convection is also noted near 07N140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak low pressure of 1010 mb is currently moving eastward across Baja California Norte. The pressure gradient between the low and the ridge that dominates the northern forecast waters is resulting in an area of fresh to strong NW winds from 26N to 29N E of 120W. Wave heights within this area of winds are in the 9 to 12 ft range in NW swell. The low pressure will cross the northern Gulf of California early this morning as it weakens. Seas of 8 to 10 ft generated by this low will continue to impact the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California today while gradually subsiding. Seas to 8 ft will reach the Revillagigedo Islands by tonight. A surge of fresh to strong NW winds will briefly follow the weakening low over the northern Gulf of California as high pressure settles over the Great Basin. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere across the Gulf of California through Thu night, with variable winds afterward. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region is expected by Thu night. Gale conditions are possible Thu night through Sat. Currently, the forecast calls for 35-40 kt winds and building seas of 10-15 ft Fri and Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds will prevail across the Papagayo region through Fri, with strong to near gale force winds Fri night through Sat night. Seas in this region should peak around 12 ft early on Sat. One again, a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds is forecast to extend SW and downwind of the Papagayo region to beyond 93W or 94W on Sat. Swell generated by the Tehuantepec and Papagayo gap wind events are expected to impact the offshore waters off Guatemala and El Salvador. Pulsing northerly winds of 20 kt are forecast to persist across the Gulf of Panama and downwind during the overnight and early morning hours over the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The most recent scatterometer pass provided observations of fresh to strong E to SE winds across the NW waters, especially N of 20N and W of 137W. These winds are the result of a tight pressure gradient between a ridge across the northern forecast waters and a gale center located just N of the Hawaiian Islands. The low is forecast to move S and weaken over the next couple of days. BY Tue night into Wed, the pressure gradient S of strong 1034 mb high pressure centered N of the forecast region near 40N136W, will support fresh to locally strong trades, mainly from 10N to 20N and W of 120W with seas of 8 to 10 ft. $$ GR