000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110301 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 213 UTC Tue Feb 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from low pres 1006 mb near 05.5N75W to 06N81W to 04N91W. The ITCZ continues from 04N91W to 04N100W to 07N113W, then is bisected by a trough extending from 06N118W to 15N115W. The ITCZ resumes from 07N123W to 06N134W to beyond the discussion area at 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 12N between 110W and 113W. Scattered moderate convection is found within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ axis W of 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Complex low pressure with the main center measuring 1008 mb is centered near the northern tip of the Gulf of California with an attendant frontal boundary extending from the low to 31.5N112.5W to 29N111.5W to 25N113W to 21.5N118W. A tight pressure gradient between the low and strong high pressure to the W is supporting strong NW to N winds N of 25N and E of 122W. Wave heights with these winds are in the 9 to 13 ft range. Strong SW winds will occur ahead of the front over the Gulf of California tonight. The low pressure system is forecast to swing E across the northern Baja California Peninsula and far northern Gulf of California tonight as it weakens. The cold front will sweep across the Gulf of California tonight, then dissipate. Seas of 9 to 13 ft W of Baja California Norte will subside to between 8 and 9 ft by Tue evening as the long period NW swell propagate SE and decay. Strong to near gale force NW to N winds will diminish to moderate to fresh NW to N winds Tue morning, then to gentle to moderate NW to N Tue afternoon. On Tue, a surge of strong to near gale-force NW winds will impact the the northern Gulf of California as strong high pressure builds in over the U.S. Great Basin. Mainly moderate NW to N winds are expected elsewhere across the Gulf, except winds will increase to moderate to fresh over the southern Gulf waters and entrance to the Gulf. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region is expected late Thu afternoon into Thu night. Gale conditions are possible Thu night through Fri night, with seas possibly building to between 10 and 14 ft range by Fri morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near gale force winds will prevail across the Papagayo region through Sat night. Seas in this region should peak around 11 ft early on Sat. Associated swell will impact the offshore waters off Guatemala and El Salvador. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will blow across the Gulf of Panama tonight as seas peak near 8 ft. The winds will decrease to fresh from the N during the overnight and early morning hours through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Scatterometer data revealed fresh to strong E to SE winds over the NW part of the discussion area N of 22N and west 135W. These winds are the result of a tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure ridging over the northern forecast waters and a gale center of 1004 mb west of the area near 23N155W. The low is expected to move SE to reach near 20N154W by late Tue as it weakens. The tight gradient E of the low will be slow in relaxing, so winds over the NW portion of the discussion area will diminish to fresh E winds Wed. On Wed, the pressure gradient S of strong 1034 mb high pressure centered near 41N136W, will support fresh to locally strong trades, mainly from 10N to 18N and W of 130W. $$ CAM