000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2046 UTC Mon Feb 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N75W to 01N83W. The ITCZ continues from 01N83W to 03N91W to 05N103W, where it is bisected by a trough that extends from 02N106W to 09N103W. The ITCZ resumes at 06N108W to 10N116W, where it is also bisected by a trough that extends from 06N119W to 13N116W. The ITCZ resumes at 09N122W and continues to 07N129W to beyond the discussion area at 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present within 05N108W to 13N114W to 09N116W to 05N108W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 08N W of 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A complex low pressure with the main center measuring 1008 mb is centered near the northern tip of the Gulf of California with an attendant cold front extending from the low to 29N113W to 25N115W to 22N120W. A tight pressure gradient between this low pressure system and strong high pressure present to its W is supporting strong NW to N winds to exist north of 28N and between 119W and 126W. Wave heights with these winds are in the 10 to 15 ft range. Strong southwest winds ahead of the low will spread over the Gulf of California tonight. The low pressure system is forecast to swing E across the northern Baja California Peninsula and far northern Gulf of California tonight while weakening. The cold front will sweep across the Gulf of California this evening and inland Mexico tonight. The wave heights of 10 to 14 ft will gradually subside to 10-12 ft this evening as the long period NW swell propagates past Punta Eugenia and reaches to the waters west of Cabo San Lazaro tonight. The aforementioned strong to near gale-force northwest to north winds will become fresh to strong west to northwest winds and be confined to roughly from 26N to 29N between 114W and 120W this afternoon, then diminish further to mainly moderate to fresh northwest to north winds early on Tue and to gentle to moderate northwest to north winds Tue afternoon. On Tue, a surge of strong to near gale-force northwest winds will impact the the northern Gulf of California as strong high pressure settles in over the U.S. Great Basin. Mainly moderate northwest to northwest winds are expected elsewhere across the Gulf, except increasing to moderate to fresh over the extreme southern Gulf waters and entrance to the Gulf region. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region is expected late Thu afternoon into Thu night. Gale conditions are possible Thu night through Fri night, with seas associated wave heights possibly building to 10 to 14 ft range by Fri morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong northeast to east trades across the southwestern Caribbean will continue to support a strong to near gale-force gap wind event across the Gulf of Papagayo. A large area of northeast to east winds in the 20 to 30 kt range is forecast to reach downwind of the Papagayo region to near 93W today. This will also affect the offshore forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. These winds will build wave heights to a peak of about 10 or 11 ft. Beginning this evening and through the remainder of the week, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will persist in the Papagayo region, in pulsing fashion, while spreading westward to near 91W. North to northeast winds of 20-25 kt are expected across the Gulf of Panama to as far south as 04.5N between 79W and 82W today as strong trades occurring over southwestern Caribbean funnel through the gaps. Wave heights with these winds are expected to reach 8-9 ft, but mainly W of 80W today and subside to less the 8 ft tonight. Thereafter, pulsing northerly winds of 20 kt are forecast to persist during the overnight and early morning hours over the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Overnight scatterometer data revealed fresh to strong southeast winds over the northwest part of the area to the north of 22N and west 137W. These winds are the result of a tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure ridging over the northern forecast waters and a gale center of 1004 mb west of the area near 25N155W. It is moving southeastward at 20 kt. This gale center is forecast to reach near 23N153W by early on Tue while it begins to weaken through Wed. The tight gradient will be slow in relaxing, so winds will diminish to mainly fresh, to at times, strong speeds on Tue and to fresh speeds Wed with direction mainly from the east. On Wed, the pressure gradient related to a strong 1034 mb high pressure, to be located to the north of the area, will result in fresh to locally strong trades, mainly from 10N to 18N and west of 130W. $$ CAM