000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Feb 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 05N80W and to 06N85W. The ITCZ begins at 04N85W and continues to 03N90W to 03N95W and to 05N105W, where it is bisected by a trough that extends from 10N102W to 03N106W. The ITCZ resumes at 04N107W and continues to 07N113W to 09N118W, where it is also bisected by a trough that extends from 12N118W to 07N120W. The ITCZ resumes at 08N121W and continues to 07N126W to 07N135W and to beyond the area at 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm north of the ITCZ between 115W and 118W and within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 111W and 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A low pressure system of 1008 mb is centered off the northern Baja California coast near 32N119W, with an attendant cold front extending from the low to 30N124W. A tight pressure gradient between this low pressure system and strong high pressure present to its W is allowing for strong to near gale-force northwest to north winds to exist north of 28N and between 119W and 126W. Wave heights with these winds are in the 11-15 ft range reported in a couple of recent ship observations within the area from 31N to 32N between 121W and 126W. Strong southwest winds ahead of the low are over over the far northern Gulf of California, where wave heights are peaking to around 6 ft. The low pressure system is forecast to track in a general southeastward motion across the Baja California Norte waters this morning before turning eastward and moving over the northern Baja California Peninsula and far northern Gulf of California this afternoon and tonight while weakening. The cold front will sweep across the offshore waters west of northern and central Baja California through this afternoon, then across the Gulf of California this evening and inland Mexico tonight. The wave heights of 11-15 ft will gradually subside to 10-12 ft by early this evening as the overall northwest set of swell propagates past Punta Eugenia and reaches to the waters west of Cabo San Lazaro tonight. The aforementioned strong to near gale-force northwest to north winds will become fresh to strong west to northwest winds and be confined to roughly from 26N to 29N between 114W and 120W this afternoon, then diminish further to mainly moderate to fresh northwest to north winds early on Tue and to gentle to moderate northwest to north winds Tue afternoon. On Tue, a surge of strong to near gale-force northwest winds will impact the the northern Gulf of California as strong high pressure settles in over the U.S. Great Basin. Mainly moderate northwest to northwest winds are expected elsewhere across the Gulf, except increasing to moderate to fresh over the extreme southern Gulf waters and entrance to the Gulf region. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region is expected late Thu afternoon into Thu night. Gale conditions are possible Thu night through Fri night, with seas associated wave heights possibly building to 10 to 14 ft range by Fri morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong northeast to east trades across the southwestern Caribbean will continue to support a strong to near gale-force gap wind event across the Gulf of Papagayo. A large area of northeast to east winds in the 20 to 30 kt range is forecast to reach downwind of the Papagayo region to near 93W today. This will also affect the offshore forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. These winds will build wave heights to a peak of about 10 or 11 ft. Beginning this evening and through the remainder of the week, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will persist in the Papagayo region, in pulsing fashion, while spreading westward to near 91W. North to northeast winds of 20-25 kt are expected across the Gulf of Panama to as far south as 04.5N between 79W and 82W today as strong trades occurring over southwestern Caribbean funnel through the gaps. Wave heights with these winds are expected to reach 8-9 ft, but mainly W of 80W today and subside to less the 8 ft tonight. Thereafter, pulsing northerly winds of 20 kt are forecast to persist during the overnight and early morning hours over the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Overnight scatterometer data revealed fresh to strong southeast winds over the northwest part of the area to the north of 22N and west 137W. These winds are the result of a tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure ridging over the northern forecast waters and a gale center of 1004 mb west of the area near 25N155W. It is moving southeastward at 20 kt. This gale center is forecast to reach near 23N153W by early on Tue while it begins to weaken through Wed. The tight gradient will be slow in relaxing, so winds will diminish to mainly fresh, to at times, strong speeds on Tue and to fresh speeds Wed with direction mainly from the east. On Wed, the pressure gradient related to a strong 1034 mb high pressure, to be located to the north of the area, will result in fresh to locally strong trades, mainly from 10N to 18N and west of 130W. $$ Aguirre