000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100930 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 618 UTC Mon Feb 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 04N85W. The ITCZ continues from 04N85W to 05N102W, then resumes from 05N108W to 07N125W to 06N140W. A trough is within the ITCZ and extends from 12.5N117W to 07N119W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12.5N E of the trough axis to 113W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A low pressure system of 1008 mb centered off the northern Baja California coast near 32N119W is supporting fresh to strong SW winds and seas to 8 ft over the northern Gulf of California. This system is also producing fresh to strong NW to N winds across the northern forecast waters, particularly N of 28N between 119W and 125W. Associated seas are in the 11 to 14 ft range based on altimeter data. The low will track SE across the Baja California Norte waters this morning. Expect fresh to strong NW winds and seas building to 8 to 14 ft north of Punta Eugenia today. Seas of 8 to 11 ft generated by this low will propagate across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro late today into tonight. The low will weaken and move inland tonight, but seas of 8 ft or greater will continue to spread SE across the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California through Tue night before subsiding on Wed. By Tue, NW winds in the 20 to 30 kt range will briefly affect the northern Gulf of California as high pressure settles over the Great Basin. Moderate to locally fresh winds are expected elsewhere across the Gulf. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region is expected late Thu into Thu night. Gale conditions are possible Thu night through Fri night, with seas building to 13 or 14 ft by Fri morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong trade winds across the SW Caribbean will continue to support a strong to near gale force gap wind event across the Gulf of Papagayo. A large area of NE to E winds in the 20 to 30 kt range is forecast to extend SW and downwind of the Papagayo region to beyond 93W or 94W today. This will also affect the offshore forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Seas are forecast to build to 10 or 11 ft with these winds. Then, fresh to strong NE to E winds will persist in the Papagayo region and downwind to about 90W the remainder of the work-week. Northerly winds at 20 to 25 kt are expected across the Gulf of Panama to as far S as 04N between 78W and 81W today as strong trade winds in the SW Caribbean funnel through the gaps. Seas are forecast to build to 8 to 9 ft, but mainly W of 80W. Pulsing northerly winds of 20 kt are forecast to persist during the overnight and early morning hours over the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The most recent scatterometer pass provided observations of fresh to strong SE winds across the NW waters, especially N of 22N and W of 137W. These winds are the result of a tight pressure gradient between a ridge across the northern forecast waters and a strong low pressure system located just W of area. This system will remain W of area over the next couple of days affecting the west-central waters with fresh to strong SE winds through Tue. By Wed, a 1034 mb high pressure centered N of the area will bring fresh to locally strong trade winds, mainly from 15N to 20N and W of 120W. $$ GR