000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100256
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0255 UTC Mon Feb 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 04N77W to 02N83W to 02N89W. The 
ITCZ begins near 02N89W and continues to 05N100W, then resumes
from 06N105W to 08N115W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is occurring from 07N to 11N between 113W and 
118W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm north
of the ITCZ between 122W and 125W, and within 60 nm of the ITCZ 
west of 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A low pressure system centered off the southern California coast
near 33N118W is supporting strong to near gale force winds over 
the northern Gulf of California. Associated seas are expected to 
build to 7-9 ft over the northern Gulf tonight. The low will 
track SE across the Baja California Norte waters through Mon, 
bringing strong NW winds and building seas to the waters north of
Cabo San Lazaro. Expect 8-12 ft seas west of Baja California, 
with 12-14 ft seas developing west of Guadalupe Island on Mon. 
The low will weaken and move inland Mon night, but NW swell will 
continue propagating SE across the region through Tue night 
before subsiding on Wed.

By mid week, moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected over
the Baja California Sur and southern Gulf of California waters 
as a high pressure ridge builds across the Baja California waters.
Looking ahead, a Tehuantepec gap wind event with possible gale 
force winds is expected Thu night through Fri night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Strong trade winds across the SW Caribbean continue to support a
strong to near gale force gap wind event across the Papagayo 
region. Strong winds will strengthen to near gale force tonight,
with fresh winds extending as far downstream as 95W. Seas will
build to 8-11 ft downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo by Mon morning,
with associated swell also impacting the offshore waters off 
Guatemala and El Salvador. Strong to near gale force winds will 
prevail across the Papagayo region through Mon night, then remain
strong through Fri night.

Elsewhere, fresh to strong northerly winds are likely ongoing
over and downstream from the Gulf of Panama. Seas will build to
8-9 ft downstream of the Gulf of Panama by Mon morning. These 
winds will continue pulsing to strong speeds through Mon night, 
then remain fresh for the rest of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front is stalling west of the forecast area, roughly 
along 144W north of 20N. The enhanced pressure gradient ahead of
the front is supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds over the 
waters north of 25N and west of 135W. Associated NW swell is 
maintaining seas greater than 8 ft across this area, with even 
higher seas west of 140W. The frontal system will remain nearly
stationary through Mon, then weaken and move westward as winds
gradually diminish through mid week. Meanwhile, NW to N swell 
will maintain seas 8 ft or greater across much of the area west 
of 130W through mid week.

Expect increasing winds and building seas in NW swell in the 
waters north of 20N and east of 130W tonight through Mon as a 
low pressure system moves SE across the Baja California Norte 
offshore waters. Wave heights are expected to peak around 12-14
ft Mon morning west of Guadalupe Island.

$$
Reinhart