000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092120 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2120 UTC Sun Feb 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 04N77W to 02N81W to 03N92W. The ITCZ begins near 04N104W and continues to 09N115W to 08N125W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 12N between 114W and 123W, and within 60 nm of the ITCZ west of 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1009 mb low pressure system centered off the southern California coast near 33N119W is supporting strong to near gale force winds over the northern Gulf of California per recent scatterometer data. Associated seas are expected to build to 8 ft over the northern Gulf tonight. The low will track SE across the Baja California Norte waters through Mon, bringing strong NW winds and building seas to the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro. Expect 8-12 ft seas west of Baja California, with 12-14 ft seas developing west of Guadalupe Island on Mon. The low will weaken and move inland Mon night, but NW swell will continue propagating SE across the region through Tue night before subsiding on Wed. By mid week, moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected over the Baja California Sur and southern Gulf of California waters as a high pressure ridge builds across the Baja waters. Looking ahead, the next Tehuantepec gap wind event with possible gale force winds is expected Thu night through Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong trade winds across the SW Caribbean continue to support a strong to near gale force gap wind event across the Papagayo region. Earlier scatterometer data showed 25-30 kt winds across the Gulf, with fresh to locally strong winds well downstream as far as 09N92W. Seas are likely 8-10 ft downstream of the Gulf this afternoon, with associated swell also impacting the offshore waters off Guatemala and El Salvador. Strong to near gale force winds will prevail across the Papagayo region through Mon night, then remain strong through Fri night. Elsewhere, earlier scatterometer data revealed fresh northerly winds across and downstream from the Gulf of Panama. Wave heights likely peak around 8 ft near 05N81W. These winds will continue pulsing to strong speeds through Mon night, then become fresh for the rest of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A slow-moving cold front is analyzed west of the forecast area, roughly along 144W north of 20N. The enhanced pressure gradient ahead of the front is supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds over the waters north of 25N west of 135W, per recent scatterometer data. Associated NW swell is maintaining seas greater than 8 ft across this area, with even higher seas noted west of 140W. The frontal system is expected to stall tonight into Mon, maintaining similar conditions across the NW portion through early this week. Looking ahead, NW to N swell will maintain seas 8 ft or greater across much of the area west of 130W through mid week. Expect increasing winds and building seas in NW swell in the waters north of 20N and east of 130W tonight through Mon as a low pressure system moves SE across the Baja California Norte offshore waters. Wave heights are expected to peak around 12-14 ft Mon morning west of Guadalupe Island. $$ Reinhart