000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091604
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1430 UTC Sun Feb 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 04N77W to 02N82W to 03N90W. The 
ITCZ begins near 05N103W and continues along 08N115W to 06N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 06N to 11N 
between 114W and 125W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A low pressure system is over Arizona with a dissipating cold
front extending SW across the offshore waters of Baja California
Norte. SW fresh to strong winds are ahead of the front across the
northern Gulf of California. These winds will prevail through
Mon evening as a reinforcing cold front and pre-frontal trough 
follow this initial dissipating cold front. NW long period swell 
will support seas of 8-11 ft N of Punta Eugenia through early on 
Mon, followed by higher seas to 13 ft associated with the second 
push of cold air. Besides higher seas, the reinforcing cold front
will support fresh to strong W to NW winds over the Baja 
offshores N of 26N through early Tue. NW swell to 10 ft will 
continue to propagate SE to near Cabo San Lucas before subsiding 
Tue night. Moderate to fresh northerlies are expected over the 
Baja California Sur offshores and the southern half of the Gulf 
of California Wed and Thu. 

Looking ahead, the next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec
region is expected by late Thu into Thu night. Gale conditions
are possible starting Thu evening and continuing through Sat 
morning with building seas to 14 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Strong trade winds across the SW Caribbean will continue to
support a strong to near gale force gap wind event across the 
Gulf of Papagayo. A large area of NE to E winds in the 20 to 30 
kt range is forecast to extend SW and downwind of the Papagayo
region to beyond 92W or 93W today and Mon. This will also affect
the offshore forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Seas 
are forecast to build to 10 or 11 ft with these winds.

Northerly fresh to strong winds are expected across the Gulf of 
Panama to as far S as 5N between 78W and 81W today through early
on Tue as strong trade winds in the SW Caribbean funnel through 
the mountain gaps. Seas are forecast to build to 9 ft along and 
W of 80W today. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail
with seas of 4 to 6 ft. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

East to SE fresh to strong winds prevail across the NW waters N 
of 20N and W of 137W due to a tight pressure gradient between a 
ridge across the northern forecast waters and a strong low 
pressure system located just W of area. The low will remain W of
area through Wed supporting fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
W of 135W and seas in the 8-9 ft range.

Expect increasing winds and building seas in NW swell in the 
waters north of 20N and east of 130W today through Mon as a low 
pressure system and associated dissipating cold front moves SE 
across the offshore forecast waters of northern Baja California. 

$$
Ramos