814 
AXPZ20 KNHC 090933
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
556 UTC Sun Feb 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 05N90W to 05N100W. The 
ITCZ continues from 05N100W to 09N115W to beyond 06N140W. No 
significant convection is occurring at this time.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California
producing light to gentle winds with seas less than 8 ft. A low 
pressure system will move over the offshore waters of Baja 
California Norte later today through Mon bringing an increase in 
winds and seas. Expect fresh to strong NW winds and seas building
to 8 to 13 ft north of Punta Eugenia by early Mon morning. Seas 
of 8 to 11 ft generated by this low will propagate across the 
waters N of Cabo San Lazaro late Mon into Mon night as the low 
and its associated cold front or trough move SE across the 
northern waters. Associated NW swell will continue propagating 
across the region through Tue night. 

Expect also fresh to strong SW winds and seas to 8 ft across the
northern Gulf of California today and tonight as the above 
mentioned low pressure moves across the offshore forecast waters.
A cold front or trough will likely reach the northern Gulf of 
California on Mon. Moderate to locally fresh winds are expected 
elsewhere across the Gulf.

Looking ahead, the next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec
region is expected by late Thu into Thu night. Gale conditions
are possible on Thu night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Strong trade winds across the SW Caribbean will continue to
support a strong to near gale force gap wind event across the 
Gulf of Papagayo. A large area of NE to E winds in the 20 to 30 
kt range is forecast to extend SW and downwind of the Papagayo
region to beyond 92W or 93W today and Mon. This will also affect
the offshore forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Seas 
are forecast to build to 10 or 11 ft with these winds.

Northerly winds at 20 to 25 kt are expected across the Gulf of
Panama to as far S as 5N between 78W and 81W today and Mon as 
strong trade winds in the SW Caribbean funnel through the gaps. 
Seas are forecast to build to 9 ft along and W of 80W today. 
These enhanced N winds should diminish to 20 kt or less by Tue. 

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail with seas of 4
to 6 ft. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The most recent scatterometer pass provided observations of fresh
to strong SE winds across the NW waters, particularly N of 22N
and W of 137W. These winds are the result of a tight pressure 
gradient between a ridge across the northern forecast waters and 
a strong low pressure system located just W of area. This system
will remain W of area through at least Mon while winds are 
forecast to diminish across the forecast region by late Mon.

Expect increasing winds and building seas in NW swell in the 
waters north of 20N and east of 130W later today through Mon 
as a weakening low pressure system moves SE across the offshore 
forecast waters of northern Baja California. 

$$
GR