000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082115 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2115 UTC Sat Feb 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 05N77W to 06N95W. The ITCZ begins near 06N95W and continues to 07N105W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm north of the trough between 82W and 85W, and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 95W and 98W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Scatterometer data from this afternoon indicated light to gentle winds prevailed across the forecast waters under a weak pressure pattern. Wave heights are less than 8 ft across the region. A low pressure system will approach Baja California Norte Sun, resulting in strong SW winds over the northern Gulf of California through Sun night. Expect fresh to strong winds and seas building to 8-12 ft north of Cabo San Lazaro Mon into Mon night as the low and its associated cold front or trough move SE across the northern waters. Associated NW swell will continue propagating across the region through Tue night. High pressure will build over the Great Basin on Tue, supporting fresh to locally strong NW winds along the Gulf of California through Wed morning. Winds will diminish on Thu as the local pressure gradient relaxes. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong NE to E winds prevail across the Papagayo region this afternoon, while fresh N winds are occurring over and downstream of the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail over the remaining forecast waters with seas less than 8 ft. Strong to near gale force winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through Mon night, then become fresh to strong through the middle of next week. Seas will likely build to 8-10 ft each morning downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama region through Wed, with peak seas nearing 8 ft each day. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge persists across the northern waters this afternoon. Recent scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh trade winds continue within the enhanced pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ, with the strongest winds west of 130W. Combined seas are likely running 8-10 ft west of 130W within the strongest trades. Generally moderate to locally fresh trades will persist through early next week. Expect increasing winds and building seas in NW to N swell in the waters north of 20N and east of 130W Sun through Mon night as a weakening low pressure system moves SE across the region. A slow moving frontal system will approach the far NW waters tonight and Sun, then stall west of 140W Sun night into early next week. Strong SE winds east of the front will build seas to 8-11 ft north of 20N and west of 135W Sun through Mon night. Looking ahead, a set of NW swell will result in 8-12 ft seas west of 130W Tue through Wed night. Seas will gradually subside Thu and Thu night as the swell decays. $$ Reinhart