000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1355 UTC Wed Feb 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 06N77W to 03N82W to 04N87W to 05N100W. The ITCZ begins near 05N100W and continues along 05N100W to 08N117W to 06N130W to 05N140W. Numerous moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 111W AND 119W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N E of 84W, and from 06N to 16N W of 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong NW winds are expected in the Gulf of California through this evening, associated with the gradient between high pressure west of Baja California and a 1002 mb low in northern Mexico. Winds will diminish gradually afterwards as the area of low pressure shifts eastward. The eastward displacement of the low over Mexico along with gradual weakening of the ridge to the west will diminish fresh to strong northerlies W of the Baja California peninsula this afternoon. However, decaying NW swell will continue to support seas in the 8-9 ft range through early Thu. The low over northern Mexico will extend southward to near Veracruz this evening while strengthening. This will support fresh to strong northerlies over the offshore waters from Guadalajara to Manzanillo through Thu. Building high pressure behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico today and Thu will induce strong northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec continuing through early Fri night. Winds are expected to peak around 25-30 kt in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early Fri. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A fairly weak pressure pattern will prevail across the forecast area through Fri. However, Caribbean trade winds will funnel through the Gulf of Papagayo today and tonight, thus supporting fresh to strong winds over the Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica offshore waters. A high pressure will move N of the area early on Sat and will tighten the pressure gradient in the region again. This will result in a second round of fresh to strong winds off the Gulf of Papagayo during the weekend with seas building to 9 ft. Otherwise, moderate to fresh northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will prevail through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge axis extending from 1035 mb high pressure N of the area centered near 37N136W to near 20N114W is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the ITCZ and west of 110W. Seas in this area are 8 to 10 ft. The high will remain nearly stationary and slowly weaken through Fri. Marine conditions will gradually improve across the forecast area the remainder of the week as the ridge weakens. $$ Ramos