000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040220 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 123 UTC Tue Feb 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 06N79W to 05N85W to 05N92W. The ITCZ continues from 05N92W to 06N105W to 07N113W then resumes near 05N123W and continues to 05N131W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 02N to 07N between 82W and 88W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front continues to move SE through NW Mexico, crossing the central Gulf of California and into northern parts of Baja California Sur, then to 21N123W. Tight pressure gradient between this front and strong high pressure centered off the coast of California is leading to fresh to strong NW winds N of 28N in the Gulf of California and offshore Pacific waters, evidenced earlier afternoon scatterometer passes. Seas of up to 14 are also occurring offshore Baja California Norte. This front will drift SE overnight and gradually dissipate Tue after reaching the Cabo San Lucas area. Winds will gradually diminish through Tue, but long period NW swell will propagate SE, reaching all offshore waters of Baja California through Wed. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an upper-level low pressure trough from Jalisco to Guerrero will gradually move inland overnight. Aside from locally strong winds with this convection, gentle to at times moderate winds should prevail over the waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern prevails with tranquil winds noted across the offshore waters, except for fresh to strong gap winds over the Papagayo and Gulf of Panama regions. A broad surface ridge centered NE of the area will support fresh to strong NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and fresh to strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama through Tue morning. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge axis extends from strong 1040 mb high pressure centered near 39N138W to near 20N120W. The pressure gradient south of the ridge is supporting fresh to strong NE trades from 07N to 21N W of 130W, with seas of 8 to 10 ft in mixed NW and NE swell. The ridge will continue to weaken, and the trades in this region will gradually diminish during the next couple of days. NE winds 20 to 25 kt with seas of 10 to 14 ft prevail across the waters N of 25N and W of Baja California Norte W of the cold front moving over Baja. Long period NW swell dominates the rest of the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the area north of 05N and west of 130W. Swell in this region will diminish tonight before the next significant round of long period NW swell sweeps into the waters north of 10N Wed night. Weak low pressure of 1010 mb near 08N115W will drift west and dissipate tonight, providing little in the way of sensible weather to the area. $$ KONARIK