000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032122 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2028 UTC Mon Feb 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 06N81W to 05N85W to 04N91W. The ITCZ continues from 04N91W to 05N105W to 06N114W then resumes near 05N122W and continues to 05N132W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 02N to 06N between 83W and 87W and from 07N to 15N between 110W and 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from SE Arizona, across Sonora and the northern Gulf of California, to Punta Eugenia to near 24N124W. Tight pressure gradient between this front and strong high pressure centered off the coast of California is leading to strong NW winds N of 29N in the Gulf of California and offshore Pacific waters, evidenced by the latest scatterometer passes. Seas of up to 14 are also occurring offshore Baja California Norte. This front will drift SE tonight and gradually dissipate Tue after reaching the Cabo San Lucas area. Winds will gradually diminish through Tue, but long period NW swell will propagate SE, reaching all offshore waters of Baja California through Wed. Daytime scatterometer pass over southern parts of the Gulf of California revealed strong SW winds ahead of the aforementioned cold front. These winds will also gradually diminish tonight. A mid to upper-level trough continue to support an area of showers and thunderstorms over the offshore waters from Nayarit to Guerrero. This convection is expected to move inland this evening. Otherwise, fresh winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish to light and variable this evening as high pressure N of the area shifts E and weakens. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern prevails with tranquil winds noted across the offshore waters, except for fresh to strong gap winds over the Papagayo and Gulf of Panama regions. A broad surface ridge over the Florida Peninsula will support fresh to strong NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and fresh to strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama through Tue morning. NW swell generated by a former gale over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to affect the waters adjacent to Guatemala and El Salvador through tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge axis extends from strong 1040 mb high pressure centered near 39N138W to near 20N120W. The pressure gradient south of the ridge is supporting fresh to strong NE trades from 07N to 21N W of 130W, with seas of 8 to 9 ft in mixed NW and NE swell. The ridge will continue to weaken, and the trades in this region will gradually diminish during the next couple of days. NE winds 20 to 25 kt with seas of 10 to 14 ft prevail across the waters N of 25N and W of Baja California Norte W of the cold front moving over Baja. Long period NW swell dominates the rest of the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the area north of 05N and west of 130W. Swell in this region will diminish tonight before the next significant round of long period NW swell sweeps into the waters north of 10N Wed night. Weak low pressure of 1012 mb near 08N115W will drift west and dissipate tonight, providing little in the way of sensible weather to the area. $$ KONARIK