000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1406 UTC Mon Feb 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 06N77W to 05N85W to 03N90W. The ITCZ continues from 03N90W to 03N104W to 06N114W then resumes near 04N123W and continues along 04N134W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 02N to 05N between 83W and 87W. Scattered moderate convection from 01N to 06N between 122W and 126W. A surface trough extends from 22N106W to 13N108W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 12N to 23N between 101W and 108W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from SW Arizona to the coast of Baja California Norte near 30N116W to 27N119W to 26N125W. A strong pressure gradient between the front and a broad surface ridge to the west of offshores is supporting fresh to strong NW winds behind the front or N of Punta Eugenia. Seas behind the front range between 8 to 15 ft. The front will continue to drift SE across the Baja Peninsula through Tue morning before it dissipates near Cabo San Lucas early in the afternoon. Winds will diminish to moderate to fresh early on Tue. However, long period NW swell will continue to spread SE and reach the southern tip of Baja California Sur early on Wed before subsiding during the night hours. S and SW fresh to strong winds are across the northern Gulf of California ahead of the cold front mentioned above. As the front progresses SE today, fresh to strong NW winds will follow it and prevail through the evening hours. A center of high pressure will develop over the Great Basin on Tue, and will support a second round of fresh to strong winds, reaching the central gulf waters early on Wed before diminishing at night. A mid to upper-level trough continue to support an area of showers and tstms over the offshore waters from Sinaloa to Guerrero. This convection is expected to move inland this evening. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish to light and variable late this morning as high pressure N of the area shifts E and weakens. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern prevails with tranquil winds noted across the offshore waters, except for fresh to strong gap winds over the Papagayo and Gulf of Panama regions. A broad surface ridge over the Florida Peninsula will support fresh to strong NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and fresh to strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama through Tue morning. NW swell generated by a former gale over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to affect the waters adjacent to Guatemala and El Salvador through tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from strong 1040 mb high pressure centered near 40N138W to near 20N120W. The pressure gradient south of the ridge is supporting fresh NE trades from 07N to 21N W of 130W, with seas of 8 to 9 ft in mixed NW and NE swell. The ridge will continue to weaken, and the trades in this region will gradually diminish during the next couple of days. NE winds 20 to 25 kt with seas of 10 to 15 ft prevail across the waters N of 25N and W of Baja California Norte W of the cold front moving over Baja. Long period NW swell dominates the rest of the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the area north of 05N and west of 130W. Swell in this region will diminish tonight before the next significant round of long period NW swell sweeps into the waters north of 10N through Wed night. $$ Ramos/Torres