000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031005 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 UTC Mon Feb 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is heading E but the pressure gradient over the Tehuantepec region remains just high enough to support gale force winds over the northern the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Peak seas this morning are around 12 ft. Winds of 20 to 30 kt and seas of 9 to 11 ft extend farther downstream to near 13.5N95.5W. Winds will quickly fall below gale force by dawn, then diminish further to light and variable by this evening as the high over the Gulf of Mexico shifts E and weakens. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa,gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from low pres 1009 mb near 10N75W to 03N80W TO 02N95W. The ITCZ continues from 02N95W to 05N110W to beyond 06N140W. No significant convection is currently associated with these features. A surface trough extends from low pres 1011 mb centered near 18N112W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is evident from 13N to 23N between 105W and 110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad surface ridging generally prevails over the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California as a cold front nears the NW corner of Baja California Norte. Winds have shifted to between S and SW across the northern Gulf of California and along the Pacific coast of Baja California, and will increase significantly today. SW winds ahead of the front will increase to 30 kt over the northern Gulf of California, while NW winds reach 20 to 30 kt over the far northern offshore waters behind the cold front. The front is expected to reach central portions of Baja California tonight, then weaken as it moves over Baja California Sur by Tue night. Expect large NW swell producing seas as high as 15 ft in the offshore waters behind the front on Mon. A mid to upper-level low centered just SW of Cabo San Lucas supports an area of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 13N to 23N between 105W and 110W. The low and associated weather will shift slowly eastward and move inland between Manzanillo and Acapulco today. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern prevails with tranquil winds noted across the offshore waters, except for fresh to strong gap winds over the Papagayo and Gulf of Panama regions. A tight pressure gradient over Central America will maintain strong to near gale force winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama through tonight. Large NW swell generated by gales over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will affecting the waters adjacent to Guatemala and El Salvador will decay by tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from strong 1040 mb high pressure centered near 39N138W to just NW of Cabo San Lucas. The pressure gradient south of the ridge is supporting fresh NE trades from 07N to 21N W of 130W, with seas of 8 to 9 ft in mixed NW and NE swell. The ridge has begun to weaken, and the trades in this region will gradually diminish during the next couple of days. NE winds 20 to 25 kt with seas of 10 to 15 ft prevail across the waters N of 25N and W of Baja California Norte W of the cold front moving SE over Baja. Long period NW swell dominates the rest of the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the area north of 05N and west of 130W. Swell in this region will diminish tonight before the next significant round of long period NW swell sweeps into the waters north of 10N through Wed night. $$ CAM