003 AXPZ20 KNHC 030320 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Feb 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico is maintaining a very tight pressure gradient over the Tehuantepec region and continues to support gale force winds extending from the Gulf of Tehuantepec to near 14.5N95.5W. Peak seas this evening are near 14 ft. Winds of 20 to 30 kt and seas of 8 to 15 ft extend further downstream to near 10N102W. Winds and seas have peaked for this event early today and will gradually diminish tonight, and fall below gale force after midnight, then diminish rapidly late tonight through Mon as the high over the Gulf of Mexico shifts E and weakens. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa,gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 05N77W TO 03.5N78W TO 03N95W. The ITCZ begins near 03N95W to 06.5N116W TO 05N133W TO beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N TO 07N E OF 85W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 07N between 80W AND 85W, from 05N TO 08N between 106W AND 111W, and from 03.5N TO 08N between 126W and 130W. A squall line of strong convection is noted within 150 nm E of a line from 21.5N109W to 18N110W to 12N114W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad surface ridging prevails over the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California ahead of an approaching cold front moving through southern California. Winds have begun to shift to southerly across the Gulf of California and along the Pacific coast of Baja California, and will increase significantly this evening and tonight. The cold front is then expected to move from the Pacific waters over Baja California Norte tonight through Mon morning. SW winds ahead of the front will increase to 30 kt over the northern Gulf of California, while NW winds reach 20 to 30 kt over the far northern offshore waters behind the cold front. The front is expected to reach central portions of Baja California Mon night and weaken as it moves over southern portions by Tue night. Expect large NW swell producing seas as high as 16 ft in the offshore waters behind the front on Mon. A deep layer upper low well offshore of Baja California Sur supports a squall line of strong convection that extends within 150 nm east of a line from 21.5N109W to 18N110W to 12N114W. The upper low and associated weather will shift slowly eastward tonight through Mon, and gradually move inland. Look for this weather to move eastward across the offshore waters from Baja California Sur to Michoacan through Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern prevails with tranquil winds noted across the offshore waters, except for fresh to strong gap winds over the Papagayo and Gulf of Panama regions. A tight pressure gradient over Central America will maintain strong to near gale force winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama through Mon night. Large NW swell generated by gales over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will affect the waters adjacent to Guatemala and El Salvador today and Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from strong 1040 mb high pressure centered near 40N140W to just offshore of Cabo San Lucas. The pressure gradient south of the ridge is supporting fresh NE trades from 07N to 21N W of 123W, with seas of 8 to 9 ft in mixed swell. The ridge has begun to weaken today, and the trades will gradually diminish tonight. A dying cold front has reached the far NW part of the area near 30N140W, and will stall and dissipate through Mon. NE winds 20-25 kt with seas of 10-11 ft prevail across the far NW waters within 150 nm S of the front. Long period NW swell dominates the rest of the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the area north of 05N and west of 130W. Swell in this region will diminish tonight before the next significant round of long period NW swell sweeps into the waters north of 20N Mon and Tue. $$ Stripling