000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021000 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 856 UTC Sun Feb 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Scatterometry from between 0330Z and 0430Z indicates the latest gap wind event is peaking between 40 and 45 kt. High pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico is maintaining a very tight pressure gradient over the Tehuantepec region as seas are topping out around 20 ft. Winds of 20 to 30 kt and seas of 8 to 12 ft are extending downstream of the Tehuantepec region to beyond 100W. Winds and seas will diminish rapidly late tonight and Mon as the high over the Gulf of Mexico shifts E and weakens. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa,gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 06N77W to 04N82W to 04N98W. The ITCZ continues from 04N98W 07N107W to 04N122W to beyond 05N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present within 90 nm of 06N77.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere from 02N to 05N between 76W and 84W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 129W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad surface ridge residing over the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California as the ridge weakens ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will shift to southerly across the Gulf of California and along the Pacific coast of Baja California, and increase significantly this afternoon and evening. The cold front is then expected to move from the Pacific waters over Baja California Norte tonight through Mon morning. SW winds ahead of the front will increase to 30 kt over the northern Gulf of California, while NW winds reach 20 to 30 kt over the far northern offshore waters behind the cold front. The front is expected to reach central portions of Baja California Mon night and weaken as it moves over southern portions by Tue night. Expect large NW swell producing seas as high as 16 ft in the offshore waters behind the front on Mon. A deep layer upper trough well offshore of southern Mexico has induced a surface trough that extends from 10N118W to 17N115.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated with the trough is occurring from 15N to 18N between 110W and 115W. Winds on the E side of the deep-layer trough are pulling abundant mid-level moisture from the tropics between 105W and 120W NE across central Mexico. Multi-layered clouds, embedded showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to stream NE across western Mexico and the adjacent offshore waters from Michoacan to southern Sinaloa, as well as extreme Baja California Sur. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern persists this evening with tranquil winds noted across the offshore waters, except for fresh to strong gap winds over the Papagayo and Gulf of Panama regions. A tight pressure gradient over Central America will maintain strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama through Mon night. Large NW swell generated by gales over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will affect the waters adjacent to Guatemala and El Salvador Sun and Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from strong 1041 mb high pressure centered near 39N145W to just NW of the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient south of the ridge is supporting fresh NE trades from 06N to 21N W of 125W, with seas of 8 to 10 ft in mixed swell. The ridge will weaken today, and the trades will diminish. A dying cold front will just reach the far NW part of the area near 30N140W this morning, then stall and dissipate through Mon. Scatterometer imagery from between 0400Z and 0600Z this morning indicates that winds in the vicinity of the surface trough extending from 10N118W to 17N115.5W have diminished to moderate to fresh speeds. Seas in this area are running between 8 and 9 feet. Long period NW swell dominates the rest of the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the area north of 05N and west of 130W. Swell in this region will diminish today and tonight before the next significant round of long period NW swell sweeps into the waters north of 20N Mon and Tue. $$ CAM