000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020327 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Feb 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force northerly gap winds continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening and extend downwind to near 13.5N95.5W, behind a strong cold front moving across the NW Caribbean. High pressure building behind the front will maintain a very tight pressure gradient over the Tehuantepec region during the next 24 hours, supporting gale force winds across and downstream of Tehuantepec. Winds across the area are expected to reach near storm force tonight into Sun, with seas expected to peak around 20 ft by Sun morning. Winds of 20 to 30 kt and seas of 8-12 ft will extend downstream of the Tehuantepec region to beyond 100W by Sun morning. Winds will diminish rapidly late Sun night and Mon as the high shifts eastward and weakens. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa,gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 10N75.5W TO 04N78W TO 07.5N87W TO 06N92W. ITCZ extends from 06N92W TO 07.5N111W, then resumes from 06N116W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered strong convection noted from 03N TO 06.5N E OF 80W TO Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 NM OF line FROM 09N118W TO 18N105W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection noted within 150 NM N OF ITCZ between 130W AND 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge prevails across the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds W of Baja California, and moderate to fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of California. Winds are expected to diminish modestly this evening through Sun as high pressure weakens across the area ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will shift to southerly across the Gulf of California and along the Pacific coast of Baja California, and increase significantly Sun afternoon through evening. The cold front is then expected to move from the Pacific waters into Baja California Norte Sun night through Mon morning. SW winds ahead of the front will increase to 30 kt in the northern Gulf of California, while NW winds reach 20-30 kt across the far northern offshore waters behind the cold front. The front is expected to reach central portions of Baja California Mon night and move into southern portions by Tue night. Expect large NW swell producing seas to 18 ft across the offshore waters behind the front on Mon. A deep layer upper trough well offshore of southern Mexico is pulling abundant mid-level moisture from the tropics between 105W and 120W northeastward across central Mexico. Multi- layered clouds, embedded showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to stream northeastward across western Mexico and the adjacent offshore waters from Michoacan to southern Sinaloa, as well as extreme Baja California Sur. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern persists this evening with tranquil winds across offshore waters, except for moderate to fresh gap winds over the Papagayo and Gulf of Panama regions. A tightening pressure gradient over Central America during the next few days will induce strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama through Mon night. Large NW swell will affect the waters off Guatemala and El Salvador on Sun and Mon, generated from gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from a collapsed high pressure center near 34N129W to just NW of the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient south of the ridge is supporting fresh NE trades from 06N to 21N W of 125W, with seas of 9 to 12 ft in mixed swell. The ridge will weaken through Sun, and the trades will diminish. A dying cold front will reach the far northwest part of the area near 30N140W this evening, then stall and dissipate through Mon. Strong northerly winds with gusts potentially to 30-35 kt are suggested by satellite imagery this evening to the NW of a surface trough located from 15N109W to 06N115W, where are estimated to be 9-11 ft. Winds associated with the feature will diminish to 20 kt or less by mid morning Sun. Long period NW swell dominates the rest of the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the area north of 05N and west of 115W. Swell will gradually diminish the next couple days, with the areal coverage of 8 ft or greater seas shrinking. Significant long period NW swell will sweep into the waters north of 20N Mon and Tue. $$ Stripling