000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310910 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jan 31 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... High pressure behind a strong cold front in the western Gulf of Mexico will initiate in a gale force gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Sat morning and continuing through Sun evening. Gale force winds are expected to peak around 45 kt late Sat night or early Sun morning and may briefly reach storm force during this time. Winds will diminish rapidly Sun night and Mon as the high shifts eastward and weakens. Wave heights are forecast to peak in the 16-22 ft range Sun morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa,gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 06N77W to 04N83W to 04N99W. The ITCZ continues from 04N99W to 07N116W, then resumes west of a surface trough from 06N125W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted north of the ITCZ within an area bounded by 20N108W to 10N115W to 10N 119W to 16N120W to 20N108W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Large long period northwest swell dominating the forecast waters west of Baja California will subside this weekend. Sea heights just west of Baja California will remain 6-8 ft this weekend. Gentle to moderate northwest to north winds W of Baja California and fresh NW winds in the northern Gulf of California will continue through Sat. Seas in the central Gulf of California are forecast to peak around 7-8 ft tonight. A cold front will sweep southeastward across the northern half of the Baja Peninsula Sun and Mon, to significantly increase the winds and seas west of Baja California. Wave heights during this time are forecast to reach 12-18 ft just west of Baja California Norte on Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern will prevail through Sat, with tranquil winds across offshore waters, except for moderate to fresh gap winds over the Papagayo and Gulf of Panama regions. A tightening pressure gradient over Central America will induce strong winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region and fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama in late night and early morning hours Sat night through Mon night. Large NW swell will affect the waters off Guatemala and El Salvador from gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Sun and Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure ridging extends from a 1034 mb high near 32N133W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient south of the ridge is supporting fresh to strong NE trades from 06N to 26N W of 120W. Residual NW swell in this area producing combined seas of 10-13 ft in SW portions. The ridge will weaken tonight through Sun, and the trades will diminish. A dying cold front will reach the far northwest part of the area near 31N140W Sat, then stall and dissipate through Mon. Wave heights are expected to reach 10-12 ft north of 22N and west of 125W,and 11 to 15 ft between 121W and 125W on Mon. Long period NW swell dominates the rest of the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the area north of 05N and west of 115W. Swell will gradually diminish the next few days, with the areal coverage of 8 ft or greater seas shrinking this weekend. Significant long period NW swell will sweep into the waters north of 20N Mon and Tue. $$ Mundell