000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310258 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jan 31 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tight pressure gradient in the wake of an upcoming strong Gulf of Mexico cold front will usher in a gale force gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Sat morning and continuing through Sun evening. Gale force winds are expected to peak around 45 kt late Sat night through early Sun morning and could briefly reach storm force during this time. This gap wind event will then diminish rapidly Sun night through Mon as the strong high pressure center over northern Mexico translates eastward and weakens. Wave heights with this upcoming event are forecast to peak in the 16-22 ft range Sun morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa,gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 10N73W TO 05N77W TO 04.5N89W. The ITCZ then continues from 04.5N89W TO 07.5N116W TO 07N129W TO beyond 04N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N TO 12N between 86W AND 91W, and from 12.5N TO 15N between 103W AND 111W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 270 NM N OF the ITCZ between 112W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Large, long-period northwest swell will dominate the forecast waters west of Baja California through Fri, before subsiding through the weekend. Wave heights just west of Baja California Norte have subsided to 8-11 ft this afternoon after peaking at 12 ft this morning. The pressure gradient associated with a high pressure ridge that extends from a 1032 mb high center near 32N132W to near the Revillagigedo Islands is bringing mainly gentle to moderate northwest to north winds west of Baja California and fresh northwest winds over the north and central portions of the Gulf of California. These wind condition are expected to continue to the west of Baja California through Sat. The fresh winds inside the Gulf are forecast to diminish slightly overnight and then increase to fresh to strong Fri through Sat before diminishing through Sat night. Wave heights in the northern and central Gulf of California are forecast to peak to or around 7 ft from late Fri through early Sat. On Sun and Mon, a weakening cold front will sweep southeastward across the northern half of the Baja Peninsula and increase the northwest to north winds and seas to the west of Baja California. Wave heights during this time are forecast to reach 12-18 ft just west of Baja California Norte on Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern will prevail through Sat with tranquil winds across all of the offshore waters. Beginning on Sat night, an increased pressure gradient over Central America will cause winds to pulse to strong across the Gulf of Papagayo region and become fresh across the Gulf of Panama during late night/early morning hours. Large northwest swell is expected to propagate through the waters offshore Guatemala, from the above described upcoming strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, from Sun afternoon into early Mon. No other significant swell is expected to impact the forecast waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure ridging extends from a 1032 mb high near 32N133W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The resultant pressure gradient south of the ridge is allowing for fresh to strong northeast trades from 06N to 26N and west of 120W. NW swell moving through this area is creating combined seas of 10-13 ft across far SW portions of this area. As the ridge weakens late Fri through Sun, the trades will diminish. A cold front will reach the far northwest part of the area near 31N140W on Sat, then become stationary and gradually dissipate through Mon as broad area of strong high pressure builds across the majority of the northern and central waters of the area. Wave heights are expected to reach the range of 10-12 ft north of 22N and west of 125W on Mon and 11 to 15 ft between 121W and 125W. Otherwise, long-period northwest swell dominates the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the waters north of 05N and west of 115W. The swell will gradually dissipate the next few days, with areal coverage of wave heights 8 ft or greater subsiding through the weekend. On Mon, the next significant long-period northwest swell will reach the waters north of about 20N. $$ Stripling