000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301547
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1421 UTC Thu Jan 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 04N89W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N89W to 06N120W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 133W to
140W. 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Large, long-period NW swell will dominate the forecast waters 
west of Baja California through Fri before subsiding through the 
weekend. An altimeter pass at 1320 UTC indicated peak seas to 12
ft just west of Baja California Norte.

A surface ridge extending from a 1030 mb high near 32N133W to 
near Cabo Corrientes is forcing gentle to fresh northerlies west 
of Baja California and fresh to strong NW winds in the Gulf of 
California through early Sun. As a result, peak seas in the
northern and central Gulf of California should be 6-8 ft. On Sun
and Mon a weakening cold front or trough will proceed an 
increase in the NW to N winds and high seas west of Baja 
California. Seas should peak at 15-20 ft just west of Baja 
California Norte on Mon. 

A strong Gulf of Mexico cold front will force a gale force gap 
wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Sat and Sun before 
diminishing on Mon. Winds should peak around a strong gale on 
Sat night/Sun morning with wind waves reaching 15-20 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

A weak pressure pattern will prevail through Sat with tranquil 
winds across all of the offshore waters. Beginning Sat night, an 
increased pressure gradient over Central America will cause winds
to pulse to strong near the Gulf of Papagayo and to fresh across
the Gulf of Panama during late night/early morning hours. Large 
NW long-period swell should affect the waters off of Guatemala 
and El Salvador from a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event on Sun 
and Mon. No other significant long-period swell should impact the
forecast waters during the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high near 32N133W to near
Cabo Corrientes. The moderate pressure gradient south of the
ridge is producing fresh to strong NE trades between 08N and 22N
west of 125W with peak seas near 12 ft in combined NE wind waves
and NW swell. As the ridge weakens late Fri through Sun, the 
trades will diminish. A cold front will approach - but not quite 
reach - our NW corner at 30N140W on Sat and Sun. On late Sun and 
Mon a weakening cold front or trough will proceed an increase in
the N to NE winds north of 22N. Seas should peak around 10-15 ft
north of 22N on Mon. 

Long-period NW swell dominates the forecast waters, with seas 8 
ft or greater covering much of the waters north of 05N and west 
of 115W. The swell will gradually dissipate the next few days, 
with areal coverage of seas 8 ft or greater decreasing through 
the weekend. On Mon the next significant long-period NW swell
will reach the waters north of 20N.

$$
Landsea