000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300903 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 529 UTC Thu Jan 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 04N83W to 03N90W. The ITCZ continues from 03N90W to 04N110W TO 04N140W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 20N between 105W AND 127W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 04N to 08N between 127W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge extends across the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula. The pressure gradient between this high and a low pressure across Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds off the coast of Baja California. A cold front across the northern Gulf of California has brought fresh to locally strong NW winds to over northern sections of the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate N to NW winds generally prevail elsewhere across the open waters of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel, with little significant change expected there through Fri. Long period NW swell, with seas of 8 to 14 ft, prevail over the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Seas of 8 ft or greater will prevail over the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula through Fri, before starting to slowly subside. By early Sun, seas over the offshore waters of Baja California will subside below 8 ft. A new set of NW swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte early next week, with seas peaking near 18 ft Mon. The swell will rapidly propagate southward, once again bringing seas 8 ft or greater across the forecast waters off the entire length of the Baja California peninsula by late Mon night. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event is expected to begin Sat morning, and continue through the weekend. Seas associated to this upcoming event will peak near 22 ft by early Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern across Central America will prevail through Friday, which will support light to gentle winds across the offshore waters and quiescent marine conditions. Winds will continue to pulse to moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Papagayo region and across the Gulf of Panama during the overnight hours through Sat. Winds are then expected to increase across the Gulf of Papagayo region this weekend as high pressure builds N of the area, with these gap winds increasing to near gale conditions Sat night. SW swell will propagate across the forecast waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador today. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1031 mb is centered N of the area near 32N134W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to 26N and W of 120W. The high pressure will start to weaken and shift NE on Fri ahead of a cold front. This will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish areal coverage of strong trades Fri into the weekend. This cold front may bring some strong N winds by Sun to areas N of 25N. Long period NW swell dominates the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the waters N of 05N and W of 110W. Seas in the region of strong tradewinds are in the 10-13 ft range. The swell will gradually dissipate the next few days, with areal coverage of seas 8 ft or greater decreasing through the weekend. $$ AL