000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300348 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jan 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N74W TO 02.5N80W TO 05N85W TO 02N93W. The ITCZ continues from 02N93W TO 04N103W TO 05.5N128W TO beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N TO 10N between 125W AND 140W, and from 09N TO 14N between 105W AND 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge extends across the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula, and remains nearly stationary this evening. The pressure gradient between this high and a surface low pressure trough across the Sierra Madre Occidentales of Mexico is supporting fresh N-NW winds off the coast of Baja California Norte and central portions, while gentle to moderate winds prevail off the coast of Baja California Sur. A cold front will sink southward across the Gulf of California and Baja California Norte tonight and induce fresh to strong NW winds to over northern sections of the Gulf of California, while fresh winds off Baja California Norte will spread southward across central portions of the peninsula. Gentle to moderate N to NW winds generally prevail elsewhere across the open waters of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel, with little significant change expected there through Fri. Long period NW swell, with seas of 8 to 14 ft, prevail over the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Additional pulses of northerly swell will help maintain seas of 8 ft or greater over the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula through Fri, before starting to slowly subside below 8 ft Sat. A cold front moving across the central Gulf of Mexico has reached the Bay of Campeche this evening. Northerly winds behind the front have begun to funnel through the Chivela Pass and into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and will strengthen overnight across Tehuantepec. Winds to briefly reach near 30 kt late tonight then diminish quickly after sunrise Thu. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected to produce strong gales beginning Sat morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern across Central America will prevail through Friday, which will support light to gentle winds across the offshore waters and quiescent marine conditions. Winds will continue to pulse from moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Papagayo region and across the Gulf of Panama during the overnight hours this week. Winds are then expected to increase across the Gulf of Papagayo region this weekend as high pressure builds N of the area, with these gap winds increasing to near gale conditions Sat night. SW swell will propagate into the forecast waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador tonight through Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1030 mb remains nearly stationary N of the area near 33N133W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to 25N and W of 121W. This area of high pressure will remain nearly stationary through Thu, with only minor fluctuations in strength. This will maintain the region of fresh to strong trades through Thu. The high pressure will start to weaken and shift NE on Fri ahead of a cold front. This will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish areal coverage of strong trades Fri into the weekend. This cold front may bring some strong N winds by Sun to areas N of 25N. Long period NW swell dominates the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the waters N of 05N and W of 110W. Seas in the region of strong tradewinds are running 10-13 ft this evening. Additional pulses of NW swell will propagate into the forecast waters, maintaining these high seas through the week. $$ Stripling