000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292146 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jan 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N74W TO 09.5N86.5W TO 02N92W. The ITCZ continues from 02N92W TO 04N103W TO 05.5N128W TO beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N TO 08N between 125W AND 140W, and from FROM 09N TO 13.5N between 106W AND 121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge extends across the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula, and remains nearly stationary this afternoon. The pressure gradient between this high and a surface low pressure trough across the Gulf of California is supporting fresh N-NW winds off the coast of Baja California Norte and gentle to moderate winds off the coast of Baja California Sur. The trough will shift eastward into NW Mexico tonight, and allow fresh to strong NW winds to develop over northern sections of the Gulf of California, while fresh winds off Baja California Norte spread southward across central portions of the peninsula. Gentle to moderate N to NW winds generally prevail elsewhere across the open waters of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel, with little significant change expected there through Fri. Long period NW swell, with seas of 8 to 14 ft, prevail over the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Additional pulses of northerly swell will help maintain seas of 8 ft or greater over the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula through Fri, before starting to slowly subside below 8 ft Sat. A cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Bay of Campeche this evening. Winds behind the front will funnel through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, strengthening winds across Tehuantepec. The timing of these gap winds will coincide with peak nocturnal drainage flow overnight Wed into Thu. This will enable these winds to briefly pulse to near 30 kt late tonight then diminish quickly after sunrise Thu. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected to produce strong gales beginning Sat morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern across Central America will prevail through Friday, which will support light to gentle winds across the offshore waters and quiescent marine conditions. Winds will continue to pulse from moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Papagayo region and across the Gulf of Panama during the overnight hours this week. Winds are then expected to increase across the Gulf of Papagayo region this weekend as high pressure builds N of the area, with these gap winds increasing to near gale conditions Sat night. SW swell will propagate into the forecast waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador tonight through Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1031 mb remains stationary N of the area near 32N133W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to 25N and W of 121W. This area of high pressure will remain nearly stationary through Thu, with only minor fluctuations in strength. This will maintain the region of fresh to strong trades through Thu. The high pressure will start to weaken and shift NE on Fri ahead of a cold front. This will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish areal coverage of strong trades Fri into the weekend. This cold front may bring some strong N winds by Sun to areas N of 25N. Long period NW swell dominates the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the waters N of 05N and W of 110W. Seas in the region of strong tradewinds are running 10-13 ft this afternoon. Additional pulses of NW swell will propagate into the forecast waters, maintaining these high seas through the week. $$ Stripling