000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291507 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1506 UTC Wed Jan 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 04N90W to 04N98W. The ITCZ continues from 04N98W to 05N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 105W to 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge extends across the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula. The pressure gradient between this high and a surface low pressure trough in the Gulf of California is supporting fresh to strong winds off the coast of Baja California Norte and moderate to fresh winds off the coast of Baja California Sur. As the trough moves west into NW Mexico tonight, fresh to strong NW winds are expected over northern sections of the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate northwesterly winds prevail elsewhere across the open waters off the coast of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel. Long period NW swell, with seas greater than 8 ft, prevails over the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Additional pulses of northerly swell will help maintain seas of 8 ft or greater over the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula through Fri, before starting to slowly subside below 8 ft Sat. A cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Bay of Campeche this evening. Winds behind the front will funnel through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, strengthening winds across Tehuantepec. The timing of these gap winds will coincide with peak nocturnal drainage flow overnight Wed into Thu. This will enable these winds to briefly pulse to around 30 kt then diminish quickly after sunrise Thu. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event forecast to begin Sat morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern across Central America will prevail through Friday, which will support light to gentle winds across the offshore waters and quiescent marine conditions. Winds will continue to pulse from moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Papagayo region and across the Gulf of Panama during the overnight hours this week. Winds are then expected to increase across the Gulf of Papagayo region this weekend as high pressure builds N of the area, and near gale conditions cant be ruled out Sat night. SW swell will propagate into the forecast waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador tonight through Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1031 mb is centered N of the area near 32N133W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to 25N and W of 120W. This area of high pressure will remain nearly stationary through Thu, with only minor fluctuations in strength. This will maintain the area of fresh to strong trades through Thu. The area of high pressure will start to weaken and shift NE on Fri ahead of a cold front. This will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish areal coverage of strong trades Fri into the weekend. This cold front may bring some strong N winds by Sun to areas N of 25N. Long period NW swell dominates the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the waters N of 05N and W of 110W. Additional pulses of NW swell will propagate into the forecast waters, maintaining these seas through the week. $$ KONARIK