000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290901 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0600 UTC Wed Jan 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 04N91W. The ITCZ continues from 04N91W to 05N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 106W to 122W, and from 06N TO 10N between 122W AND 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends across the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a surface trough across the Baja California peninsula is supporting fresh to strong winds off the coast of Baja California Norte, and moderate to fresh winds off the coast of Baja California Sur. Gentle to moderate northwesterly winds prevail elsewhere across the open waters off the coast of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Gulf of California. Long period NW swell, with seas greater than 8 ft, prevails over the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Overnight altimeter pass indicate seas around 13 ft off the coast of Baja California Norte. Additional pulses of northerly swell will help maintain seas of 8 ft or greater over the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula through Fri, before starting to slowly subside below 8 ft Sat. A cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Bay of Campeche this evening. Winds behind the front will funnel through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, strengthening winds across Tehuantepec. The timing of these gap winds will coincide with peak nocturnal drainage flow overnight Wed into Thu. This will enable these winds to briefly pulse to around 30 kt then diminish quickly after sunrise Thu. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event is likely this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern across Central America will prevail through Friday, which will support light to gentle winds across the offshore waters and quiescent marine conditions. Winds will continue to pulse from moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Papagayo region and across the Gulf of Panama during the overnight hours this week. Winds are then expected to increase across the Gulf of Papagayo region this weekend as high pressure build N of the area. SW swell will propagate into the forecast waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador tonight into Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1031 mb is centered N of the area near 32N132W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to 25N and W of 120W. This area of high pressure will remain nearly stationary through Thu, with only minor fluctuations in strength. This will maintain the area of fresh to strong trades through Thu. The area of high pressure will start to weaken and shift NE on Fri ahead of a cold front. This will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish areal coverage of strong trades Fri into the weekend. Long period NW swell dominates the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the waters N of 05N and W of 110W. Additional pulses of NW swell will propagate into the forecast waters, maintaining these seas through the week. $$ AL