000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290322
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jan 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 10N74W TO 06.5N78W TO 07N85W TO
03.5N102W. The ITCZ continues from 03.5N102W TO 05.5N111W TO
beyond 07N140W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 06.5N TO 10N between 122W AND 
140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
within 30 NM either side of line from 11N107W TO 12N114.5W.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge extends across the forecast waters west of the 
Baja California peninsula this evening. A modest pressure 
gradient between this ridge and a surface trough across the Baja 
California peninsula is supporting moderate to fresh northerly winds
off the coast of Baja California. Gentle to moderate northwesterly
winds prevail elsewhere across the open waters off the coast of 
Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel. Moderate to fresh 
winds prevail across the Gulf of California. Afternoon 
scatterometer data showed northerly winds around 20 kt inside the
Gulf from Punta Concepcion to Isla San Jose, and these winds are
estimated to be continuing at this time. Seas in that area are likely
peaking at 5-6 ft.

Long period NW swell, with seas greater than 8 ft, prevails over
the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Seas 
are peaking around 13 ft off the coast of Baja California Norte.
Additional pulses of northerly swell will help maintain seas of 
8 ft or greater over the forecast waters west of the Baja 
California peninsula through Fri, before starting to slowly 
subside below 8 ft Sat.

A cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico during the 
middle of the week, reaching the Bay of Campeche Wed evening. 
Winds behind the front will funnel through the Chivela pass into 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, producing strengthening winds across
Tehuantepec. The timing of these gap winds will coincide with 
peak nocturnal drainage flow overnight Wed into Thu. This will 
enable these winds to briefly pulse to around 30 kt then diminish
quickly after sunrise Thu. A progressive weather pattern will 
cause this front to rapidly shift across the remainder of the 
Gulf of Mexico by early Thu, with high pressure following the 
front. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event is
likely starting Fri night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

A weak pressure pattern across Central America will prevail 
through Friday, which will support light to gentle winds across 
the offshore waters and quiescent marine conditions. A small area
of scattered moderate thunderstorms has developed this evening
along coastal Costa Rica, and extends to near 75 nm offshore.
Moderate offshore winds are fueling this activity. Winds will 
continue to pulse from moderate to fresh across the Gulf of 
Papagayo region and across the Gulf of Panama during the 
overnight hours this week. Winds are then expected to increase 
across the Gulf of Papagayo region this weekend as a cold front 
moves into the NW Caribbean. SW swell will propagate into the 
forecast waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador Wed 
night into Thu. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1030 mb is centered N of the area near 31N132W.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in 
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong tradewinds
N of the ITCZ to 24N and W of 122W. This area of high pressure 
will remain nearly stationary through Fri, with only minor 
fluctuations in strength. This will maintain the area of fresh to
strong trades through Thu. The area of high pressure will start 
to shift NE on Fri as the high pressure center weakens ahead of a
new strong cold front. This will loosen the pressure gradient 
and diminish areal coverage of strong trades Fri into the 
weekend. 

Long period NW swell dominates the forecast waters, with seas 8
ft or greater covering much of the waters N of 05N and W of 110W.
Additional pulses of NW swell will propagate into the forecast
waters, maintaining these seas through the week. 

$$
Stripling