000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282154 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2143 UTC Tue Jan 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N74W TO 05.5N88W TO 04N100W. The ITCZ continues from 04N100W TO 05.5N111W TO 08N140W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate convection is noted within 210 nm N of the ITCZ between 125W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge extends across the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula this afternoon. The modest pressure gradient between this ridge and a surface trough across the Baja California peninsula is supporting moderate to fresh winds off the coast of Baja California, with strongest winds offshore of Punta Eugenia. Gentle to moderate westerly winds prevail elsewhere across the open waters off the coast of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Gulf of California. Afternoon scatterometer data showed northerly winds around 20 kt inside the Gulf from Punta Concepcion to Isla San Jose. Seas in that area were likely 4-5 ft and building. Long period NW swell, with seas greater than 8 ft, prevails over the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Seas are peaking around 12 ft off the coast of Baja California Norte. Additional pulses of northerly swell will help maintain seas of 8 ft or greater over the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula through Fri, before starting to slowly subside below 8 ft Sat. A cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico during the middle of the week, reaching the Bay of Campeche Wed evening. Winds behind the front will funnel through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, producing strengthening winds across Tehuantepec. The timing of these gap winds will coincide with peak nocturnal drainage flow overnight Wed into Thu. This will enable these winds to briefly pulse to near gale conditions. A progressive weather pattern will see this front rapidly shift across the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico by early Thu, with high pressure following the front. This will veer winds over the SW Gulf of Mexico and diminish winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event is likely starting Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern across Central America will prevail through Friday, which will support light to gentle winds across the offshore waters and quiescent marine conditions. Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of Panama and in the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours. Some strong winds are possible in the Gulf of Papagayo this weekend. SW swell will propagate into the forecast waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador Wed night into Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1032 mb is centered N of the area near 31N132W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to 24N and W of 122W. This area of high pressure will remain nearly stationary through Fri, with only minor fluctuations in strength. This will maintain the area of fresh to strong trades through Thu. The area of high pressure will start to shift NE Fri. This will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish areal coverage of strong trades Fri into the weekend. Long period NW swell dominates the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the waters N of 05N and W of 110W. Additional pulses of NW swell will propagate into the forecast waters, maintaining these seas through the week. $$ Stripling