000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272205
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jan 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2045 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 03N90W to 05N102W. The 
ITCZ continues from 05N102W to 06N120W to 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 05N to 08N E of 87W and from 04N to 
10N W of 120W.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Long period NW swell, with seas in the 8-12 ft range will 
continue to affect the forecast waters west of the Baja 
California through Fri. Latest scatterometer data show gentle to 
moderate NW winds W of the Baja peninsula and across the 
offshore waters between Cabo Corrientes and Puerto Angel. The 
most recent altimeter pass depicts seas in the 8-10 ft range W 
of Baja California Norte and seas to 8 ft in the offshore waters 
between Sinaloa and Jalisco, Mexico. 

A strong and nearly stationary ridge extends across the forecast 
waters west of the Baja California peninsula into southern 
Mexico. The ridge will strengthen tonight and winds off Baja 
California Norte will increase to fresh. A surface trough will 
develop along W Mexico Tue night, which will increase the 
pressure gradient in the region, thus resulting in fresh to 
strong winds N of Punta Eugenia and moderate to fresh winds 
along the Gulf of California through Thu.

A cold front will enter the Gulf of Mexico Tue night and reach 
the Bay of Campeche Wed afternoon. Strong winds behind the front 
will funnel through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec where nocturnal drainage flow will enhance the winds 
to near gale force through Thu morning.

Looking ahead, the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is 
forecast to begin Fri night with winds possibly reaching gale 
force Sat afternoon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

A weak pressure pattern across Central America will prevail 
through Friday, which will support light to gentle variable 
winds across the offshore waters. Nocturnal drainage flow, 
however, will support moderate to locally fresh winds in the 
Gulf of Panama and in the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas across the 
region will be in the range of 4-6 ft. Otherwise, SW swell will 
propagate into the forecast waters between the Galapagos Islands 
and Ecuador, building seas to 7 ft Wed night into Thu.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1032 mb is centered N of the area near 31N131W.
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh 
to strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 125W. This 
area of high pressure will remain nearly stationary through Fri, 
with only minor fluctuations in strength, maintaining the area 
of fresh to strong trades through Fri. The area of high pressure 
will then shift NE, which will loosen the pressure gradient and 
diminish areal coverage of fresh trades into the remainder 
weekend. 

Long period NW swell dominates the forecast waters, with seas 8
ft or greater covering much of the waters N of 05N and W of 115W.
Additional pulses of NW swell will propagate into the forecast
waters, maintaining these seas through Sat. 

$$
NR