000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270907
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0845 UTC Mon Jan 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0845 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 04N90W to 05N97W. The 
ITCZ continues from 05N97W to 07.5N106W to 07.5N130W to 05N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90
nm N of the ITCZ between 117W and 130W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Long period NW swell, with seas in the 8-9 ft range, prevails 
over the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula 
and southward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Another set of NW
swell will reach the offshore waters off Baja California Norte, 
building seas to near 10 ft over these waters today. The swell 
will peak near 12 ft off Baja California Norte tonight into 
Tuesday. This swell will reinforce the current NW swell to help 
maintain seas of 8 ft or greater over the forecast waters west of
the Baja California peninsula through Fri.

A ridge extends across the forecast waters west of the Baja
California peninsula into central Mexico. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and a surface trough across the Gulf of
California is supporting moderate to fresh winds off the coast of
Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate winds prevail 
elsewhere across the open waters off the coast of Mexico. Light 
and variable winds prevail across the Gulf of California. 

The ridge will build further by the middle of the week. This 
will strengthen winds off Baja California Norte. High pressure 
will also build over the Great Basin region of the United States 
during this time. The combined impact of the building areas of 
high pressure will help for fresh to strong winds over the 
central and northern Gulf of California Wed through Thu night. 

A cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico the middle of
the week, reaching the Bay of Campeche Wed evening. Winds behind
the front will funnel through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, strengthening winds. The timing of these gap winds 
will coincide with peak nocturnal drainage flow overnight Wed 
into Thu. This will enable these winds to briefly pulse to near 
gale conditions. A progressive weather pattern will see this 
front rapidly shift across the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico by
early Thu, with high pressure following the front. This will 
veer winds over the SW Gulf of Mexico and diminish winds in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu. Looking ahead, the next Gulf of
Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event is possible this upcoming 
weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The pressure gradient between high pressure centered over Florida
and the equatorial trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds
across the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama regions, with seas
in the 4-6 ft range. The area of high pressure will weaken today,
with lower pressure then prevailing N of the area through Thu. 
This will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish the 
associated gap winds across these areas, with light to gentle
winds prevailing across the forecast waters. High pressure will
briefly build modestly N of the area, helping for pulses of 
freshening winds over the Gulf of Papagayo Thu and Fri night. 

SW swell will propagate into the forecast waters between the 
Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, building seas to 7 ft Wed night 
into Thu.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1031 mb is centered N of the area near 31N133W.
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh 
to strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 125W. This 
area of high pressure will remain nearly stationary through Thu, 
with only minor fluctuations in strength, maintaining the area 
of fresh to strong trades through Thu. The area of high pressure 
will start to shift NE Fri. This will loosen the pressure 
gradient and diminish areal coverage of strong trades Fri into 
the weekend. 

Long period NW swell dominates the forecast waters, with seas 8
ft or greater covering much of the waters N of 05N and W of 110W.
Additional pulses of NW swell will propagate into the forecast
waters, maintaining these seas through the week. 

$$
AL