000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262206
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2106 UTC Sun Jan 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 04N77W to 04N90W to 05N102W. The 
ITCZ continues from 05N102W to 07N120W to 05N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 02N to 08N between 80W and 90W, and 
from 04N to 11N between 119W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Long period NW swell, with period ranging between 15-21 seconds,
will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters 
of western Mexico and Baja California through the end of the
upcoming week. Peak seas associated to this swell event are 
near 10 ft off the coast of Baja California, with seas of 8 ft 
reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. A new set of NW swell will 
reach the offshore waters of Baja California Norte early on Mon,
with seas peaking near 12 ft N of Punta Eugenia through Mon 
evening. This reinforcing swell will maintain seas in the 8-11 
ft range across the waters W of the Baja peninsula through Fri.

A ridge W of the Baja California peninsula and a weak pressure
gradient across the region continue to support gentle to moderate
NW winds over the offshores of Baja California Norte and light to
gentle winds elsewhere off the coast of Mexico, including the Gulf
of California. High pressure building over the Great Basin 
along with the strenghtening of the ridge W of Baja will tighten 
the pressure gradient over the area early on Mon. This will 
result in moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California Norte, 
increasing to fresh to strong Wed through early Thu. NW winds 
will also increase to fresh to strong along the central and 
southern waters of the Gulf of California Mon night through Tue 
night. 

Another center of high pressure will build over the Great Basin
by the middle of the week, which will result in fresh to near 
gale force NW winds over the northern Gulf of California Wed 
night through Thu night. Seas are expected to build to 8 ft
during this period. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region will
diminish below 20 kt this evening as the pressure gradient over
the region loosens. Moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of 
Panama will prevail through early on Mon, then will diminish to
gentle to moderate through late Thu. 

Outside of the Papagayo and Panama regions, seas will generally 
be 6 ft or less across much of the forecast waters. SW swell will
help to build seas to near 7 ft between the Galapagos Islands 
and Ecuador Wed night into Thu.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weakening cold front over the NW waters extending from 30N123W
to 27N130W to 26N139W will dissipate tonight. High pressure will
build in the wake of the front today into Monday. By Monday, 
high pressure of 1031 mb will be situated near 31N131W. This 
system will help tighten the pressure gradient over the forecast 
waters, increasing tradewinds N of the ITCZ. The area of high 
pressure will remain nearly stationary through the remainder of 
the forecast period, maintaining fresh to strong tradewinds N of 
the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 125W. 

Long period NW swell propagating across the forecast area is
producing seas of 8 ft or greater over much of the forecast 
waters N of the Equator and W of 115W. Reinforcing swell
associated with the front will propagate SE across the forecast 
region and help maintain seas 8 ft or greater over much of the 
forecast waters W of 110W by tonight. 

$$
Ramos