000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261520 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1341 UTC Sun Jan 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 06N82W to 04N99W. The ITCZ continues from 04N99W to 06N120W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 05N E of 80W, and from 05N to 08N between 126W and 131W. Similar convection is also near 09N121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Long period NW swell, with a leading edge period of 20-21 seconds, is propagating across the offshore forecast waters of western Mexico all the way south from Baja California to Guerrero. Seas associated to this swell event are peaking near 11 ft off the coast of Baja California Norte, with seas of 8 ft or greater now reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. A new set of NW swell will reach the offshore waters of Baja California Norte early this week, with seas peaking near 12 ft by Mon night into early Tue. This reinforcing swell will help maintain seas 8 ft or greater across the waters W of the Baja peninsula through at least Wed. A ridge prevails W of the Baja California peninsula. The pressure gradient is supporting gentle to locally moderate winds off the coast of Baja California Norte and light to gentle winds across the remainder of the open waters off the coast of Mexico. Light winds are noted across the Gulf of California. High pressure will start to build today. By Monday, high pressure of 1031 mb will be centered near 31N131W, tightening the pressure gradient over the area. This will provide a modest increase in winds off the coast of Baja California through Thu. The building high pressure will also bring fresh to locally strong winds along the central and southern Gulf of California Mon night through Tue night. Then, expect fresh to strong NW winds across the northern Gulf of California Wed night and Thu, with seas building to near 8 ft. This will be associated with a high pressure building across the Great Basin region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient between high pressure located over the NE Gulf of Mexico and the equatorial trough is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds, and seas to 8 ft over the Papagayo region. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds, and seas in the 6-7 ft range prevails over the Gulf of Panama region. The area of high pressure will weaken today and Mon, loosening the pressure gradient and decreasing winds and seas over Papagayo and Panama. The pressure gradient will remain weak through the remainder of the week, with mainly light to gentle winds prevailing. Outside of the enhanced seas over the Papagayo and Panama regions today, seas will generally be 6 ft or less across much of the forecast waters. SW swell will help to build seas to near 7 ft between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador Wed night into Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening cold front over the NW waters extending from 30N130W to 27N140W will dissipate today. High pressure will build in the wake of the front today into Monday. By Monday, high pressure of 1031 mb will be situated near 31N131W. This system will help tighten the pressure gradient over the forecast waters, increasing tradewinds N of the ITCZ. The area of high pressure will remain nearly stationary through the remainder of the forecast period, maintaining fresh to strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 125W. Long period NW swell propagating across the forecast area is producing seas of 8 ft or greater over much of the forecast waters N of the Equator and W of 115W. The cold front currently over the NW waters has ushered in a new set of long period NW swell. Seas with this swell event will peak near 13 ft over the far NW waters today. This reinforcing swell will propagate SE across the forecast region and help maintain seas 8 ft or greater over much of the forecast waters W of 110W by tonight. $$ GR