000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260842 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 UTC Sun Jan 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06.5N77W to 06.5N83W to 04N92W to 04N99W. The ITCZ continues from 04N99W to 06N107W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 118W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The main concern for mariners across the waters off the coast of the Baja California peninsula through the forecast period will be the long period NW swell. Seas associated to this swell are peaking near 11 ft off the coast of Baja California Norte. The swell will propagate SE, reaching the Revillagigedo Islands today. A new set of NW swell will reach the offshore waters of Baja California Norte early this week, with seas peaking near 12 ft by Mon night into early Tue. This reinforcing swell will help maintain seas 8 ft or greater across the waters W of the Baja peninsula through the middle of the upcoming week. A ridge prevails W of the Baja California peninsula. The pressure gradient is supporting gentle to locally moderate winds off the coast of Baja California Norte and light to gentle winds across the remainder of the open waters off the coast of Mexico. Light winds prevail across the Gulf of California. High pressure will start to build today. By early Monday, high pressure of 1030 mb will be centered near 32N130W, tightening the pressure gradient over the area. The tightening gradient will provide a modest increase in winds off the coast of Baja California through Thu. The building high pressure will also bring fresh to locally strong winds along the Gulf of California by Tue, continuing through late Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient between high pressure centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico and the equatorial trough is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds, and seas of 6-7 ft over the Papagayo region. Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas in the 6-7 ft range prevails over the Gulf of Panama region. The area of high pressure will weaken today and Mon, loosening the pressure gradient and decreasing winds and seas over Papagayo and Panama. The pressure gradient will remain weak through the remainder of the upcoming week, with mainly light to gentle winds prevailing. Outside of the enhanced seas over the Papagayo and Panama regions today, seas will generally be 6 ft or less across much of the forecast waters. SW swell will help to build seas to near 7 ft between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador Wed night into Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front over the NW waters from 30N130W to 27N140W will weaken and dissipate today. High pressure will build in the wake of the front today into Monday. By Monday, the area of high pressure will build to 1030 mb, centered just N of the forecast waters near 32N130W. This building high will help tighten the pressure gradient over the forecast waters, increasing tradewinds N of the ITCZ. The area of high pressure will remain nearly stationary through the remainder of the forecast period, maintaining fresh to strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 125W. Long period NW swell propagating across the forecast area is producing seas of 8 ft or greater over much of the forecast waters W of 115W. The cold front currently over the NW waters has ushered in a new set of long period NW swell into the NW waters. Seas with this swell will peak near 13 ft over the far NW waters today. This reinforcing swell will propagate SE across the forecast waters and help maintain seas 8 ft or greater over much of the forecast waters W of 115W through Thu. $$ AL