000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252201
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jan 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 04N77W to 04N90W to 03N101W. The 
ITCZ extends from 04N102W and then continues along 06N122W to 
06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 04N E 
of 81W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The main concern for mariners through the middle of next week 
will be the long period NW swell, currently propagating SE off 
the coast of Baja California Norte. Seas associated to this 
swell event peak to 11 ft off the coast of Baja California 
Norte, however seas are expected to decay to 10 ft tonight. The 
swell will propagate SE, spreading seas 8 ft or greater to the 
remainder of the offshore waters W of Baja California southward 
to the Revillagigedo Islands on Sun. A new set of NW swell will 
reach the offshore waters of Baja California Norte early next 
week, with seas peaking near 12 ft by Mon night into early Tue. 
This reinforcing swell event will also help to maintain seas 8 
ft or greater across the waters W of the Baja peninsula through 
the middle of next week. 

Otherwise, a ridge will prevail W of the Baja California 
peninsula through the forecast period. A weak pressure pattern 
will support gentle to locally moderate winds off the coast of 
Baja California Norte and light to gentle winds across the 
remainder of the open waters off the coast of Mexico through the 
remainder weekend. Mainly light winds are expected across the 
Gulf of California during this time. High pressure will build by 
early next week, tightening the pressure gradient over the area, 
which will produce a modest increase in winds off the coast of 
Baja California. This will also bring fresh to locally strong 
winds over the central and southern Gulf of California by Tue. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The pressure gradient between a ridge shifting eastward across 
the SE United States and the equatorial trough will support 
fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region, and 
fresh to locally strong winds over the Gulf of Panama region 
through Sun. Winds will diminish thereafter as the area of high 
pressure weakens and the pressure gradient loosens.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure of 1025 mb centered 
near 27N132W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting fresh trade winds N of the ITCZ to near 16N and W of 
120W. This area of high pressure will weaken through today, 
replaced by a stronger high pressure building N of the area Sun. 
This stronger high pressure will support fresh to strong trades 
over the tradewind zone N of the ITCZ by Sun, and continuing 
through Thu night.

Long period NW swell is propagating across the forecast area, 
supporting seas of 8 ft or greater over much of the forecast 
waters N of 05N and W of 120W. The swell will continue to 
propagate SE, covering much of the forecast waters N of the 
Equator and W of 110W by Sun. A new set of long period NW swell 
is propagating into the NW waters with seas expected to peak 
near 13 ft Sun. 

$$
NR