000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251520
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1251 UTC Sat Jan 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 05N77W to 04N90W to 04N105W. The 
ITCZ continues from 04N105W to 07N120W to 06N140W. No significant
convection.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The main concern for mariners through the middle of next week 
will be the long period NW swell, currently propagating SE off 
the coast of Baja California Norte. Seas associated to this swell
event will peak near 11 ft today off the coast of Baja California
Norte. The swell will propagate SE, spreading seas 8 ft or greater
to the remainder of the offshore waters W of Baja California 
southward to the Revillagigedo Islands on Sun. A new set of NW 
swell will reach the offshore waters of Baja California Norte 
early next week, with seas peaking near 12 ft by Mon night into 
early Tue. This reinforcing swell event will also help to 
maintain seas 8 ft or greater across the waters W of the Baja 
peninsula through the middle of next week. 

Otherwise, a ridge will prevail W of the Baja California peninsula
through the forecast period. A weak pressure pattern will support
gentle to locally moderate winds off the coast of Baja California
Norte and light to gentle winds across the remainder of the open
waters off the coast of Mexico through the weekend. Mainly light
winds are expected across the Gulf of California during this 
time. High pressure will build by early next week, tightening the
pressure gradient over the area, which will produce a modest 
increase in winds off the coast of Baja California. This will 
also bring fresh to locally strong winds over the central and 
southern Gulf of California by Tue. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

High pressure will shift eastward across the SE United States 
through the weekend. The pressure gradient between this area of 
high pressure and the equatorial trough will support fresh to 
strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region, and fresh to 
locally strong winds over the Gulf of Panama region through Sun. 
Winds will diminish thereafter as the area of high pressure 
weakens and the pressure gradient loosens.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure of 1023 mb centered 
N of the area near 29N131W and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds N of 
the ITCZ to near 18N and W of 130W. This area of high pressure 
will weaken through today, replaced by a stronger high pressure 
building N of the area Sun. This stronger high pressure will help
support fresh to strong trades over the tradewind zone N of the 
ITCZ by Sun, and continuing through the remainder of the work 
week.

Long period NW swell is propagating across the forecast area, 
supporting seas of 8 ft or greater over much of the forecast waters
N of 05N and W of 120W. The swell will continue to propagate SE,
covering much of the forecast waters N of the Equator and W of 
110W by Sun. A new set of long period NW swell will propagate 
into the NW waters today, peaking near 13 ft Sun. 

$$
GR