000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240315 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0315 UTC Fri Jan 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 05N77W to 03N80W to 1009 mb low pressure near 05N85W to 05N104W. The ITCZ extends from 05N104W to 1010 mb low pressure near 07N127W to 09N135W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 118W and 124W, and from 07N to 10N between 131W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh NW winds likely continue over the central and southern Gulf of California this evening. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail across most of the offshore waters with 1023 mb high pressure positioned west of the region near 29N131W. Offshore high pressure will prevail west of the region through the weekend and into early next week. Moderate NW winds off Baja California and over the Gulf of California will diminish by Fri. Long period NW swell over the Baja California offshore waters will gradually decay through Fri. Fresh to strong N winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri into Sat. Another round of NW swell will move SE across the region late Fri through Sun, followed by yet another NW swell event Mon through Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure building north of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds pulsing over the Papagayo region through Sun. Moderate to fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama region will strengthen slightly Fri night through Sat, then gradually diminish Sun through early week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A persistent surface trough from 05N137W to 14N136W is associated with fresh to strong winds, as the pressure gradient remains enhanced between the trough and high pressure centered near 29N131W. Scattered moderate convection continues near the trough axis based on recent satellite imagery and lightning data. Earlier altimeter data indicated seas were generally running 8-10 ft west of 130W. The trough is likely to weaken and drift slowly westward, passing west of 140W by Fri night. Expect an increased coverage in fresh to strong trade winds west of 125W early next week as high pressure strengthens north of the region. Elsewhere, seas 8 ft or greater in NW swell continue between 110W and 125W. This swell will decay through Fri, and seas will subside below 8 ft by Fri night. Another set of long period NW swell has built seas to 10-14 ft roughly north of 26N and west of 138W. This swell will propagate SE through the weekend, with a large area of 8 ft or greater seas prevailing west of 120W. A weakening cold front will move into the far NW waters Sat, then stall and dissipate Sat night into Sun. $$ Reinhart